Uploaded July 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
↓↓↓ Links and more in full description below ↓↓↓
You can buy me a coffee if you enjoyed this and want to support these videos. You don't have to though, no pressure. buymeacoffee.com/chrispattison
Early in 2025, there were reports of an asteroid that might hit the Earth. At one point, it had over a 3% chance of hitting the Earth in 2032, the highest chance of an impact humans have ever predicted for an asteroid of this size. Suddenly, all news of the asteroids has disappeared, and it’s not a threat any more. What happened? Where did the asteroid go, why were we so wrong, and why might the asteroid still hit the Moon?
This asteroid, called 2024 YR4, would have brought anywhere near the destruction of the “dino-killer” asteroid 65 million years ago, but it could have caused significant damage to a city or region, depending on where exactly it hit. At between 53 and 67 metres, it is a few times larger than the Chelyabinsk meteor that hit Russia in 2013. This created shock waves that shattered windows and injured hundreds of people. An impact from 2024 YR4 might be more like the Tunguska event, which leveled a forest in Russia in 1908. You wouldn't want to be at ground zero, but Earth would have survived. Luckily, the chances of impact have no evaporated, but let’s explore why in this video, and discuss what humans could have actually done if the threat had maintained or even grown.
LINKS:
ESO Asteroid update: eso.org/public/news/eso2505
JWST observations: science.nasa.gov/blogs/webb/2025/04/02/nasas-webb-finds-asteroid-2024-yr4-is-building-sized
Asteroid hitting moon simulation: youtube.com/watch?v=Rtg9d3zOSC8&ab_channel=PaulWiegert
Asteroid hitting moon paper: physics.uwo.ca/~pwiegert/papers/2025_Wiegert_etal_ApJL.pdf
China Hiring planetary defence force: theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/14/china-opens-recruitment-for-planetary-defence-force-amid-fears-of-asteroid-hitting-earth#:~:text=China-,China%20opens%20recruitment%20for%20'planetary%20defence%20force'%20amid,fears%20of%20asteroid%20hitting%20Earth&text=China%20has%20begun%20recruiting%20for,conceivably%20hit%20Earth%20in%202032.
My DART Videos:
How Big was the Impact?: youtube.com/watch?v=2wbJkhuCZjs&ab_channel=ChrisPattison
Mission Successful: youtube.com/watch?v=qO0A4q9R1A0&ab_channel=ChrisPattison
Mission Explained: youtube.com/watch?v=EefqCn0kZoY&ab_channel=ChrisPattison
We Changed the SHAPE of the Asteroid: youtube.com/watch?v=L8QiMqYOtLA&t=60s&ab_channel=ChrisPattison
New Hubble Images of the impacted asteroid: youtube.com/watch?v=ioHgMfrXD0Q&ab_channel=ChrisPattison
Hey team!
If there is some other cool topic in physics you think we should learn about together, leave a comment down below!
Until next time, stay safe.
SPACE ANIMAL STICKERS & MORE: redbubble.com/people/CosmoChris/shop
Please consider subscribing if you enjoyed the video, and you can also find me on BlueSky, Twitter and Instagram:
https://bsky.app/profile/cosmochris.bsky.social
twitter.com/chrisdpattison
instagram.com/chrispattison22
↓↓↓ Links and more in full description below ↓↓↓
You can buy me a coffee if you enjoyed this and want to support these videos. You don't have to though, no pressure. buymeacoffee.com/chrispattison
Early in 2025, there were reports of an asteroid that might hit the Earth. At one point, it had over a 3% chance of hitting the Earth in 2032, the highest chance of an impact humans have ever predicted for an asteroid of this size. Suddenly, all news of the asteroids has disappeared, and it’s not a threat any more. What happened? Where did the asteroid go, why were we so wrong, and why might the asteroid still hit the Moon?
This asteroid, called 2024 YR4, would have brought anywhere near the destruction of the “dino-killer” asteroid 65 million years ago, but it could have caused significant damage to a city or region, depending on where exactly it hit. At between 53 and 67 metres, it is a few times larger than the Chelyabinsk meteor that hit Russia in 2013. This created shock waves that shattered windows and injured hundreds of people. An impact from 2024 YR4 might be more like the Tunguska event, which leveled a forest in Russia in 1908. You wouldn't want to be at ground zero, but Earth would have survived. Luckily, the chances of impact have no evaporated, but let’s explore why in this video, and discuss what humans could have actually done if the threat had maintained or even grown.
LINKS:
ESO Asteroid update: eso.org/public/news/eso2505
JWST observations: science.nasa.gov/blogs/webb/2025/04/02/nasas-webb-finds-asteroid-2024-yr4-is-building-sized
Asteroid hitting moon simulation: youtube.com/watch?v=Rtg9d3zOSC8&ab_channel=PaulWiegert
Asteroid hitting moon paper: physics.uwo.ca/~pwiegert/papers/2025_Wiegert_etal_ApJL.pdf
China Hiring planetary defence force: theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/14/china-opens-recruitment-for-planetary-defence-force-amid-fears-of-asteroid-hitting-earth#:~:text=China-,China%20opens%20recruitment%20for%20'planetary%20defence%20force'%20amid,fears%20of%20asteroid%20hitting%20Earth&text=China%20has%20begun%20recruiting%20for,conceivably%20hit%20Earth%20in%202032.
My DART Videos:
How Big was the Impact?: youtube.com/watch?v=2wbJkhuCZjs&ab_channel=ChrisPattison
Mission Successful: youtube.com/watch?v=qO0A4q9R1A0&ab_channel=ChrisPattison
Mission Explained: youtube.com/watch?v=EefqCn0kZoY&ab_channel=ChrisPattison
We Changed the SHAPE of the Asteroid: youtube.com/watch?v=L8QiMqYOtLA&t=60s&ab_channel=ChrisPattison
New Hubble Images of the impacted asteroid: youtube.com/watch?v=ioHgMfrXD0Q&ab_channel=ChrisPattison
Hey team!
If there is some other cool topic in physics you think we should learn about together, leave a comment down below!
Until next time, stay safe.
SPACE ANIMAL STICKERS & MORE: redbubble.com/people/CosmoChris/shop
Please consider subscribing if you enjoyed the video, and you can also find me on BlueSky, Twitter and Instagram:
https://bsky.app/profile/cosmochris.bsky.social
twitter.com/chrisdpattison
instagram.com/chrispattison22
