Joniversity | What do you think you're thinking when you think? (why experts are wrong) @Joniversity | Uploaded January 2011 | Updated October 2024, 1 hour ago.
If like me, you're following current affairs, politics, economics, global warming, science, medicine, space exploration, etc. You must have heard hundreds of predictions made by notable experts, analysts and university professors that in retrospect don't even pass the laughing test.
Now, this could be a laughing matter, you know when you hear some of the predictions made only a few years back. But when you think about it, it's not only us who listen to these people and take them seriously. But our politicians and policy makers rely on them too.
Now, instead of exposing those so called experts, the cognitive illusions that drive them, their illusion of validity which makes them over confidant and their 'expert intuition' which we seem to accept as some sort of authority I want to explain why you should be very cautious when you listen to your own assessments and judgment.
To do that I've based my video on a lecture by Daniel Kahneman - an Israeli-American psychologist and Nobel laureate, notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, behavioral economics and hedonic psychology.
Kahneman and other researchers have made the fields of decision making a hot-bed of academic controversy while discussing issues such as the cognitive illusions of experts, the illusion of validity, personal biases in decision making and adjacent topics.
Apart from modern decision making models, some provided by Kahneman himself I will also touch briefly the usage of Game Theory mathematical models in geo-political assessments (influenced by work by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita) and the popular use of Quants (Quantitative Analysts) in modern economy models - that look nice, but seam to disregard the emergent non-linearity of market economy.
For further investigation:
Illusion of validity
illusion-of-validity.behaviouralfinance.net
Cognitive illusions
cognitivepsychologyarena.com/cognitive-illusions-9781841693514
Cognitive and personal biases in decision making
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_making#Cognitive_and_personal_biases
Quants (Quantitative Analysts)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_analyst
Game theory Rational Agent
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational_agent
Daniel Kahneman
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman
Gary A. Klein
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_A._Klein
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Bueno_de_Mesquita
If like me, you're following current affairs, politics, economics, global warming, science, medicine, space exploration, etc. You must have heard hundreds of predictions made by notable experts, analysts and university professors that in retrospect don't even pass the laughing test.
Now, this could be a laughing matter, you know when you hear some of the predictions made only a few years back. But when you think about it, it's not only us who listen to these people and take them seriously. But our politicians and policy makers rely on them too.
Now, instead of exposing those so called experts, the cognitive illusions that drive them, their illusion of validity which makes them over confidant and their 'expert intuition' which we seem to accept as some sort of authority I want to explain why you should be very cautious when you listen to your own assessments and judgment.
To do that I've based my video on a lecture by Daniel Kahneman - an Israeli-American psychologist and Nobel laureate, notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, behavioral economics and hedonic psychology.
Kahneman and other researchers have made the fields of decision making a hot-bed of academic controversy while discussing issues such as the cognitive illusions of experts, the illusion of validity, personal biases in decision making and adjacent topics.
Apart from modern decision making models, some provided by Kahneman himself I will also touch briefly the usage of Game Theory mathematical models in geo-political assessments (influenced by work by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita) and the popular use of Quants (Quantitative Analysts) in modern economy models - that look nice, but seam to disregard the emergent non-linearity of market economy.
For further investigation:
Illusion of validity
illusion-of-validity.behaviouralfinance.net
Cognitive illusions
cognitivepsychologyarena.com/cognitive-illusions-9781841693514
Cognitive and personal biases in decision making
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_making#Cognitive_and_personal_biases
Quants (Quantitative Analysts)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_analyst
Game theory Rational Agent
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational_agent
Daniel Kahneman
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman
Gary A. Klein
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_A._Klein
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Bueno_de_Mesquita
