The Julia La Roche Show | We’re At An Inflection Point @TheJuliaLaRocheShow | Uploaded October 2023 | Updated October 2024, 1 day ago.
Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, the founder of Sahm Consulting and creator of The Sahm Rule — a recession indicator — joins Julia La Roche on episode 107 for a wide-ranging discussion on macro and the Federal Reserve.
In this episode, Sahm noted that the economy is potentially at an inflection point, and we’ll know soon if we’re getting a soft landing or are headed in a slow grind that could lead us over the edge and into recession.
Currently, she’s in the 50-50 baseline case regarding recession. To be sure, Sahm is concerned about the cooling in the labor market. She noted, "Once things get going in a bad direction, they keep going.”
Throughout her career, Sahm has worked at the Federal Reserve, and the White House, and has also advised Congress. She’s the creator of the Sahm Rule, a reliable indicator of a recession based on the unemployment rate. The rule was developed as a trigger for automatically sending out relief like stimulus checks in a recession, taking the politics out of it.
Links:
Stay-At-Home-Macro: stayathomemacro.substack.com
X: twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/claudiasahm
0:00 Welcome Claudia Sahm
0:44 Potentially an inflection point
2:07 Labor market
3:40 What’s weighing on consumers?
6:30 Long and variable lags
10:03 Has the Fed done too much?
11:50 Risk of doing too much is aligned with the risk of doing too little
14:58 Fed’s inflation fight
19:02 Assessment of the consumer today
23:09 Great Recession
25:54 Sahm Rule
31:17 Are we in a recession according to the Sahm Rule?
32.22 Labor
36:00 Risk of a recession?
40:05 50/50 case of a recession
42:56 Housing
47:22 A decade Federal Reserve
53:00 Storytelling is the most important part of the forecasting
57:00 Groupthink at the Fed
1:01:12 Parting thoughts
#economy #recession #inflation
Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, the founder of Sahm Consulting and creator of The Sahm Rule — a recession indicator — joins Julia La Roche on episode 107 for a wide-ranging discussion on macro and the Federal Reserve.
In this episode, Sahm noted that the economy is potentially at an inflection point, and we’ll know soon if we’re getting a soft landing or are headed in a slow grind that could lead us over the edge and into recession.
Currently, she’s in the 50-50 baseline case regarding recession. To be sure, Sahm is concerned about the cooling in the labor market. She noted, "Once things get going in a bad direction, they keep going.”
Throughout her career, Sahm has worked at the Federal Reserve, and the White House, and has also advised Congress. She’s the creator of the Sahm Rule, a reliable indicator of a recession based on the unemployment rate. The rule was developed as a trigger for automatically sending out relief like stimulus checks in a recession, taking the politics out of it.
Links:
Stay-At-Home-Macro: stayathomemacro.substack.com
X: twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/claudiasahm
0:00 Welcome Claudia Sahm
0:44 Potentially an inflection point
2:07 Labor market
3:40 What’s weighing on consumers?
6:30 Long and variable lags
10:03 Has the Fed done too much?
11:50 Risk of doing too much is aligned with the risk of doing too little
14:58 Fed’s inflation fight
19:02 Assessment of the consumer today
23:09 Great Recession
25:54 Sahm Rule
31:17 Are we in a recession according to the Sahm Rule?
32.22 Labor
36:00 Risk of a recession?
40:05 50/50 case of a recession
42:56 Housing
47:22 A decade Federal Reserve
53:00 Storytelling is the most important part of the forecasting
57:00 Groupthink at the Fed
1:01:12 Parting thoughts
#economy #recession #inflation
