Uploaded August 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Weather Whiplashing: Accelerating Shifts from Heatwaves to Heavy Rainfall in Our Climate Casino
An observational study in China looked at Heat Wave (HW) events followed within a maximum of 5 days by Heavy Rain (HR) events. This extensive study used data collected at 2000 weather stations over 50 years. When a region has one of these extreme events (HW or HR) it is bad enough, but when a region has a HW followed within a few days by HR, the consequences to people and infrastructure are compounded.
We know that extreme weather events are increasing in frequency, severity, and duration and they are often happening in regions where they did not happen before. I explain how the jet streams have become more wavier in the North-South direction (more meridional) leading to this weather disruption as climate change accelerates.
However, we usually think of these extreme events as separate events. Not so.
It turns out that Heat Waves precondition regions to be followed frequently by Heavy Rain events. Parts of Canada and Europe and other places around the world that are presently in heat waves can be fairly confident that heavy rain events will likely follow within a maximum of 5 days, and in more and more cases the HW-HR event will occur with a 1 to 2 day lag, and be termed a Short-Term-Event or STE.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Links:
Recent peer-reviewed paper:
Title: Accelerated shifts from heatwaves to heavy rainfall in a changing climate
Abstract
Consecutive heatwave and heavy rainfall (HW‐HR) events are occurring with increasing frequency in a warming climate. The time interval, defined as the duration between the end of a heatwave and the onset of heavy rainfall, affects both environmental conditions and the regional recovery between two consecutive extreme events. However, the dynamics of the transition between consecutive HW-HR events remain poorly understood. In this study, we examine the changes in the time interval of consecutive HW-HR events in China from 1970 to 2019, using meteorological data from over 2000 stations across mainland China. Our results reveal that the time interval has significantly shortened at 24.1% of the stations. This trend is primarily driven by an increased proportion of short-time events (STEs), defined as consecutive events with time intervals within 1–2 days. From 1970 to 2019, the proportion of STEs increased significantly, at a rate of 1.4% per decade. We also find that climate change-induced anomalies in atmospheric variables during the consecutive HW-HR events, especially convective available potential energy, 2 m temperature, and relative humidity, may contribute to this rise in the proportion of STEs. Additionally, our study assesses changes in population exposure to STEs over the past two decades. We find that the area of exposure has increased across more than three-quarters of the country, with the increases in STEs contributing to 65.3% of the overall rise in exposure. Our findings highlight the importance of prioritizing disaster response during consecutive HW-HR events and implementing effective risk management strategies to mitigate population exposure to extreme events.
Link to open-source free science paper:
nature.com/articles/s41612-025-01113-w
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Weather Whiplashing: Accelerating Shifts from Heatwaves to Heavy Rainfall in Our Climate Casino
An observational study in China looked at Heat Wave (HW) events followed within a maximum of 5 days by Heavy Rain (HR) events. This extensive study used data collected at 2000 weather stations over 50 years. When a region has one of these extreme events (HW or HR) it is bad enough, but when a region has a HW followed within a few days by HR, the consequences to people and infrastructure are compounded.
We know that extreme weather events are increasing in frequency, severity, and duration and they are often happening in regions where they did not happen before. I explain how the jet streams have become more wavier in the North-South direction (more meridional) leading to this weather disruption as climate change accelerates.
However, we usually think of these extreme events as separate events. Not so.
It turns out that Heat Waves precondition regions to be followed frequently by Heavy Rain events. Parts of Canada and Europe and other places around the world that are presently in heat waves can be fairly confident that heavy rain events will likely follow within a maximum of 5 days, and in more and more cases the HW-HR event will occur with a 1 to 2 day lag, and be termed a Short-Term-Event or STE.
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Links:
Recent peer-reviewed paper:
Title: Accelerated shifts from heatwaves to heavy rainfall in a changing climate
Abstract
Consecutive heatwave and heavy rainfall (HW‐HR) events are occurring with increasing frequency in a warming climate. The time interval, defined as the duration between the end of a heatwave and the onset of heavy rainfall, affects both environmental conditions and the regional recovery between two consecutive extreme events. However, the dynamics of the transition between consecutive HW-HR events remain poorly understood. In this study, we examine the changes in the time interval of consecutive HW-HR events in China from 1970 to 2019, using meteorological data from over 2000 stations across mainland China. Our results reveal that the time interval has significantly shortened at 24.1% of the stations. This trend is primarily driven by an increased proportion of short-time events (STEs), defined as consecutive events with time intervals within 1–2 days. From 1970 to 2019, the proportion of STEs increased significantly, at a rate of 1.4% per decade. We also find that climate change-induced anomalies in atmospheric variables during the consecutive HW-HR events, especially convective available potential energy, 2 m temperature, and relative humidity, may contribute to this rise in the proportion of STEs. Additionally, our study assesses changes in population exposure to STEs over the past two decades. We find that the area of exposure has increased across more than three-quarters of the country, with the increases in STEs contributing to 65.3% of the overall rise in exposure. Our findings highlight the importance of prioritizing disaster response during consecutive HW-HR events and implementing effective risk management strategies to mitigate population exposure to extreme events.
Link to open-source free science paper:
nature.com/articles/s41612-025-01113-w
Please donate to PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
