Uploaded August 2026 | Updated September 2026, 3 weeks ago
This episode unpacks reporting that U.S. munitions stockpiles are dangerously low and lays out the consequences of the shortage both for Washington’s ongoing war with Iran, and for its deterrence of adversaries.
Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR
Guest:
Michael C. Horowitz, Senior Fellow for Technology and Innovation and Director of the Defense and National Security Program, CFR
We Discuss:
1. Whether news reports of a serious depletion of U.S. high-tech weapons stocks are accurate, and how far inventories have been drawn down.
2. The distinction between defensive interceptors, such as Patriot and THAAD, and offensive standoff weapons, such as Tomahawks and ATACMS, and how long each takes to produce.
3. How the roots of the munitions crisis trace back to decisions in the 1990s—including the "Last Supper" defense industry consolidation—that prioritized quality over quantity.
4. Why President Donald Trump's argument that the shortage stems from Biden-era weapons transfers to Ukraine misses deeper structural causes.
5. How chokepoints—from Chinese rare-earth dominance to consolidated tier-two and tier-three suppliers—make ramping up production slow and costly.
6. Why the Pentagon has been slow to shift its acquisition strategy despite nearly a decade of warnings about renewed great power competition, and how "not invented here" attitudes compound the problem.
7. Whether budget austerity would spur innovation or choke it, and how "precise mass" could revitalize U.S. capabilities within a two-year window.
8. How much the current drawdown threatens deterrence at a moment when the United States is left without an aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific.
00:00 - Introduction to The President’s Inbox
01:31 - US Munitions Stockpile Depletion
03:00 - Defensive vs. Offensive Weapons
04:00 - Patriot and THAAD Production Rates
05:22 - Geopolitical Cost Exchange Ratios
06:50 - Standoff Weapons and Risks
08:53 - US Defense Policy Roots
10:06 - The 1993 Defense Consolidation
12:32 - Industrial Supply Chain Chokepoints
15:54 - Great Power Competition Strategy
18:44 - Scaling Precise Mass and AI
22:05 - Defense Procurement and Innovation
25:27 - Fiscal Policy and Military Budgets
31:04 - Regional Deterrence in the Pacific
Find us
Washington’s Missile Shortage, With Michael Horowitz - cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/washingtons-missile-shortage
The President’s Inbox - cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox
Apple Podcasts - podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-presidents-inbox/id1172546141
Spotify - open.spotify.com/show/65u6jcFyV5BnlVhhzSi7UJ
Related Content
Out of Ammo: A Two-Year Sprint to Rebuild the American Arsenal and Deter China - cfr.org/reports/out-of-ammo-a-two-year-sprint-to-rebuild-the-american-arsenal-and-deter-china
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R.1) - congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1
Battles of Precise Mass: Technology Is Remaking War—and America Must Adapt - foreignaffairs.com/world/battles-precise-mass-technology-war-horowitz
Will Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful’ Defense Spending Last? - cfr.org/articles/will-trumps-big-beautiful-defense-spending-last
Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or our guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
Subscribe to our channel: youtube.com/user/cfr
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher.
Visit the CFR website: cfr.org
Follow CFR on X: https://x.com/cfr_org
Follow CFR on Facebook: facebook.com/councilonforeignrelations
Follow CFR on Instagram: @CFR_org
This episode unpacks reporting that U.S. munitions stockpiles are dangerously low and lays out the consequences of the shortage both for Washington’s ongoing war with Iran, and for its deterrence of adversaries.
Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR
Guest:
Michael C. Horowitz, Senior Fellow for Technology and Innovation and Director of the Defense and National Security Program, CFR
We Discuss:
1. Whether news reports of a serious depletion of U.S. high-tech weapons stocks are accurate, and how far inventories have been drawn down.
2. The distinction between defensive interceptors, such as Patriot and THAAD, and offensive standoff weapons, such as Tomahawks and ATACMS, and how long each takes to produce.
3. How the roots of the munitions crisis trace back to decisions in the 1990s—including the "Last Supper" defense industry consolidation—that prioritized quality over quantity.
4. Why President Donald Trump's argument that the shortage stems from Biden-era weapons transfers to Ukraine misses deeper structural causes.
5. How chokepoints—from Chinese rare-earth dominance to consolidated tier-two and tier-three suppliers—make ramping up production slow and costly.
6. Why the Pentagon has been slow to shift its acquisition strategy despite nearly a decade of warnings about renewed great power competition, and how "not invented here" attitudes compound the problem.
7. Whether budget austerity would spur innovation or choke it, and how "precise mass" could revitalize U.S. capabilities within a two-year window.
8. How much the current drawdown threatens deterrence at a moment when the United States is left without an aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific.
00:00 - Introduction to The President’s Inbox
01:31 - US Munitions Stockpile Depletion
03:00 - Defensive vs. Offensive Weapons
04:00 - Patriot and THAAD Production Rates
05:22 - Geopolitical Cost Exchange Ratios
06:50 - Standoff Weapons and Risks
08:53 - US Defense Policy Roots
10:06 - The 1993 Defense Consolidation
12:32 - Industrial Supply Chain Chokepoints
15:54 - Great Power Competition Strategy
18:44 - Scaling Precise Mass and AI
22:05 - Defense Procurement and Innovation
25:27 - Fiscal Policy and Military Budgets
31:04 - Regional Deterrence in the Pacific
Find us
Washington’s Missile Shortage, With Michael Horowitz - cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/washingtons-missile-shortage
The President’s Inbox - cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox
Apple Podcasts - podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-presidents-inbox/id1172546141
Spotify - open.spotify.com/show/65u6jcFyV5BnlVhhzSi7UJ
Related Content
Out of Ammo: A Two-Year Sprint to Rebuild the American Arsenal and Deter China - cfr.org/reports/out-of-ammo-a-two-year-sprint-to-rebuild-the-american-arsenal-and-deter-china
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R.1) - congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1
Battles of Precise Mass: Technology Is Remaking War—and America Must Adapt - foreignaffairs.com/world/battles-precise-mass-technology-war-horowitz
Will Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful’ Defense Spending Last? - cfr.org/articles/will-trumps-big-beautiful-defense-spending-last
Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or our guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
Subscribe to our channel: youtube.com/user/cfr
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher.
Visit the CFR website: cfr.org
Follow CFR on X: https://x.com/cfr_org
Follow CFR on Facebook: facebook.com/councilonforeignrelations
Follow CFR on Instagram: @CFR_org
