Manifold | Warren Hatch on Seeing the Future in the Era of COVID-19 @ManifoldPodcast | Uploaded June 2020 | Updated October 2024, 12 hours ago.
Steve and Corey talk to Warren Hatch, President and CEO of Good Judgment Inc. Warren explains what makes someone a good forecaster and how the ability to integrate and assess information allows cognitively diverse teams to outperform prediction markets. The hosts express skepticism about whether the incentives at work in large organizations would encourage the adoption of approaches that might lead to better forecasts. Warren describes the increasing depth of human-computer collaboration in forecasting. Steve poses the long-standing problem of assessing alpha in finance and Warren suggests that the emerging alpha-brier metric, linking process and outcome, might shed light on the issue. The episode ends with Warren describing Good Judgment’s open invitation to self-identified experts to join a new COVID forecasting platform.
Good Judgment Inc
goodjudgment.com
Good Judgment Open
gjopen.com
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
goodreads.com/book/show/23995360-superforecasting
Noriel Roubini (Wikipedia)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouriel_Roubini
man·i·fold /ˈmanəˌfōld/ many and various.
In mathematics, a manifold is a topological space that locally resembles Euclidean space near each point.
Steve Hsu and Corey Washington have been friends for almost 30 years, and between them hold PhDs in Neuroscience, Philosophy, and Theoretical Physics. Join them for wide ranging and unfiltered conversations with leading writers, scientists, technologists, academics, entrepreneurs, investors, and more.
Steve and Corey talk to Warren Hatch, President and CEO of Good Judgment Inc. Warren explains what makes someone a good forecaster and how the ability to integrate and assess information allows cognitively diverse teams to outperform prediction markets. The hosts express skepticism about whether the incentives at work in large organizations would encourage the adoption of approaches that might lead to better forecasts. Warren describes the increasing depth of human-computer collaboration in forecasting. Steve poses the long-standing problem of assessing alpha in finance and Warren suggests that the emerging alpha-brier metric, linking process and outcome, might shed light on the issue. The episode ends with Warren describing Good Judgment’s open invitation to self-identified experts to join a new COVID forecasting platform.
Good Judgment Inc
goodjudgment.com
Good Judgment Open
gjopen.com
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
goodreads.com/book/show/23995360-superforecasting
Noriel Roubini (Wikipedia)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouriel_Roubini
man·i·fold /ˈmanəˌfōld/ many and various.
In mathematics, a manifold is a topological space that locally resembles Euclidean space near each point.
Steve Hsu and Corey Washington have been friends for almost 30 years, and between them hold PhDs in Neuroscience, Philosophy, and Theoretical Physics. Join them for wide ranging and unfiltered conversations with leading writers, scientists, technologists, academics, entrepreneurs, investors, and more.
