Uploaded September 2022 | Updated September 2026, 8 hours ago
This video provides examples of how to use the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) Short-Term Probabilistic Guidance in a river flood briefing, in combination with other hydrological forecast products such as rainfall outlooks, precipitation forecasts, and single-value hydrological forecasts. Within a fictional river flood scenario, two briefings are given by a National Weather Service hydrologist. These are designed to serve as a guide to recommended approaches for communicating the various degrees of uncertainty associated with potential river levels, as represented in the HEFS probabilistic forecasts.
It is the third of a set of three videos explaining how to interpret and communicate hydrologic ensemble forecasts using the HEFS Short-Term Probabilistic Guidance. This video series is available as a training module on the MetEd site at:
How to Interpret the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service Short-Term Probabilistic Guidance
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/education_training/lesson/10210.
Aimed primarily at users of the HEFS Short-term Probabilistic Guidance, these videos will be useful for anyone wishing to interpret and communicate hydrologic ensemble forecasts. This may include operational meteorologists, emergency managers, water managers, water utilities operators, and personnel at other similar agencies.
Learning objectives:
1. Communicate the key components of a HEFS 10-day forecast, including probability bands, exceedance probabilities, and the 10-day Chance of Exceedance Flood Category.
2. Effectively explain the correct way to interpret HEFS probabilistic guidance in the context of a river level forecast briefing.
This video provides examples of how to use the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) Short-Term Probabilistic Guidance in a river flood briefing, in combination with other hydrological forecast products such as rainfall outlooks, precipitation forecasts, and single-value hydrological forecasts. Within a fictional river flood scenario, two briefings are given by a National Weather Service hydrologist. These are designed to serve as a guide to recommended approaches for communicating the various degrees of uncertainty associated with potential river levels, as represented in the HEFS probabilistic forecasts.
It is the third of a set of three videos explaining how to interpret and communicate hydrologic ensemble forecasts using the HEFS Short-Term Probabilistic Guidance. This video series is available as a training module on the MetEd site at:
How to Interpret the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service Short-Term Probabilistic Guidance
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/education_training/lesson/10210.
Aimed primarily at users of the HEFS Short-term Probabilistic Guidance, these videos will be useful for anyone wishing to interpret and communicate hydrologic ensemble forecasts. This may include operational meteorologists, emergency managers, water managers, water utilities operators, and personnel at other similar agencies.
Learning objectives:
1. Communicate the key components of a HEFS 10-day forecast, including probability bands, exceedance probabilities, and the 10-day Chance of Exceedance Flood Category.
2. Effectively explain the correct way to interpret HEFS probabilistic guidance in the context of a river level forecast briefing.
