Uploaded November 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Henry does a deep dive breakdown of Upstart’s Q3 2025: why the model tightened, how UMI moved, what the balance sheet actually implies, and where funding/credit performance stand going into Q4/2026.
00:00 Intro, method (UpstartIQ, Trustpilot signal)
00:45 Guide vs. actual ($280M guide; $277M reported)
01:10 Trustpilot index slowdown; model tightened despite app surge
01:45 UMI jumps ~1.40→1.59/1.62; pricing tightens
02:45 “Sample/population” error; macro noise cut ~50%
03:30 Principle: protect credit performance over volume (FSD analogy)
04:10 Results: originations +80% YoY, revenue +71% YoY, ~11% margin
04:45 Conversion 23.9%→20.6%; rates higher, fewer large loans
05:45 Balance sheet +$200M QoQ; ~70% R&D loans (auto/HELOC/SDL)
06:45 Funding mix YTD: ~62% institutional, ~25% lending partners, ~13% BS
08:05 No direct BS originations in Q3; 100% private-credit retention; intent to sell
09:15 Context: ~$1.23B loans on BS; +$424M vs. Q4; ~5.4% of volume parked
10:50 Credibility gap vs. guidance; what mgmt promised vs. delivered
11:20 Credit tells: NII $19M vs. $5M guide; co-investments FV step-up
13:40 Why that FV step-up matters for underlying performance
14:55 New products: SDL instant funding (~90s), hints at revolving credit
16:00 Auto/HELOC slower by design; funding first; products now +11% of mix
17:05 Underwriting vs. peers; Q4 guide trimmed; Trustpilot-based read
19:20 Big risks: macro-sensitivity, BS narrative, comms; leadership trajectory
22:50 Wrap-up: short-term hit vs. long-term runway
Learn more at rebellionaire.com
Rebellionaire is a brand of Halter Ferguson Financial. hffinancial.com/disclaimer
As of November 12th, 2025, clients and employees of our firm Halter Ferguson Financial own Upstart stock and/or options and thereby stand to materially benefit from a rise in the share price. Past performance is no assurance of future results. Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. (“Halter Ferguson Financial”) is a registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of Indiana. A complete list of all recommendations will be provided if requested for the preceding period of not less than one year. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. Opinions expressed are those of Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. and are subject to change, not guaranteed and should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell any security.
Halter Ferguson Financial is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment advisor does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability.
Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author/presenter as of the date of publication and are subject to change and do not constitute personalized investment advice. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies presented. No content should be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein.
Halter Ferguson Financial does not represent, warranty, or imply that the services or methods of analysis employed by the Firm can or will predict future results, successfully identify market tops or bottoms, or insulate clients from losses due to market corrections or declines.
Investments are subject to market risks and potential loss of principal invested, and all investment strategies likewise have the potential for profit or loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client's portfolio. There are also no assurances that any portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark.
Henry does a deep dive breakdown of Upstart’s Q3 2025: why the model tightened, how UMI moved, what the balance sheet actually implies, and where funding/credit performance stand going into Q4/2026.
00:00 Intro, method (UpstartIQ, Trustpilot signal)
00:45 Guide vs. actual ($280M guide; $277M reported)
01:10 Trustpilot index slowdown; model tightened despite app surge
01:45 UMI jumps ~1.40→1.59/1.62; pricing tightens
02:45 “Sample/population” error; macro noise cut ~50%
03:30 Principle: protect credit performance over volume (FSD analogy)
04:10 Results: originations +80% YoY, revenue +71% YoY, ~11% margin
04:45 Conversion 23.9%→20.6%; rates higher, fewer large loans
05:45 Balance sheet +$200M QoQ; ~70% R&D loans (auto/HELOC/SDL)
06:45 Funding mix YTD: ~62% institutional, ~25% lending partners, ~13% BS
08:05 No direct BS originations in Q3; 100% private-credit retention; intent to sell
09:15 Context: ~$1.23B loans on BS; +$424M vs. Q4; ~5.4% of volume parked
10:50 Credibility gap vs. guidance; what mgmt promised vs. delivered
11:20 Credit tells: NII $19M vs. $5M guide; co-investments FV step-up
13:40 Why that FV step-up matters for underlying performance
14:55 New products: SDL instant funding (~90s), hints at revolving credit
16:00 Auto/HELOC slower by design; funding first; products now +11% of mix
17:05 Underwriting vs. peers; Q4 guide trimmed; Trustpilot-based read
19:20 Big risks: macro-sensitivity, BS narrative, comms; leadership trajectory
22:50 Wrap-up: short-term hit vs. long-term runway
Learn more at rebellionaire.com
Rebellionaire is a brand of Halter Ferguson Financial. hffinancial.com/disclaimer
As of November 12th, 2025, clients and employees of our firm Halter Ferguson Financial own Upstart stock and/or options and thereby stand to materially benefit from a rise in the share price. Past performance is no assurance of future results. Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. (“Halter Ferguson Financial”) is a registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of Indiana. A complete list of all recommendations will be provided if requested for the preceding period of not less than one year. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. Opinions expressed are those of Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. and are subject to change, not guaranteed and should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell any security.
Halter Ferguson Financial is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment advisor does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability.
Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author/presenter as of the date of publication and are subject to change and do not constitute personalized investment advice. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies presented. No content should be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein.
Halter Ferguson Financial does not represent, warranty, or imply that the services or methods of analysis employed by the Firm can or will predict future results, successfully identify market tops or bottoms, or insulate clients from losses due to market corrections or declines.
Investments are subject to market risks and potential loss of principal invested, and all investment strategies likewise have the potential for profit or loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client's portfolio. There are also no assurances that any portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark.
