Uploaded February 2025 | Updated September 2026, 5 hours ago

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In this week’s episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith, with special guest Nathan Labenz (host of AI podcast @CognitiveRevolutionPodcast ) breaks down the current landscape of U.S.-China relations and how once-allies became rivals under Xi Jinping's aggressive strategies. While China shows growing AI capabilities like DeepSeek, Smith emphasizes that the real concern isn't about AI models but rather military applications like autonomous drones and precision weapons, suggesting that the next decade represents a critical period for managing tensions and establishing deterrence.

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RECOMMENDED PODCAST:

Check out Nathan Labenz's podcast The Cognitive Revolution
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk
YouTube: youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast

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FOLLOW ON X:
@labenz
@noahpinion
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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:
Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
Dwarkesh podcast with Sarah Paine youtu.be/fx6fakjQBdo?si=FR4ZGTGWzXsO4__E
Book: Rush Doshi, The Long Game goodreads.com/book/show/52617647-the-long-game
Book: John Mearsheimer Conventional Deterrence goodreads.com/book/show/224128.Conventional_Deterrence
Noahpinion essay: Simple Lessons from China's Big AI Breakthrough https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-simple-lessons-from-chinas-big
Noahpinion Essay: The Elemental Foe https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-elemental-foe?utm_source=publication-search

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TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro
(00:31) Understanding US-China relations
(04:10) Strategic dynamics of US-China rivalry
(11:17) China's leadership and policy shifts
(12:38) Impact of Xi Jinping's leadership
(15:36) China's global ambitions and US response
(21:01) Sponsors: Netsuite | Notion
(23:14) Threats posed by China's strategies
(32:21) Understanding export controls
(32:42) Military balance and nuclear weapons
(34:13) Conventional deterrence and precision weaponry
(37:16) Role of chips in modern warfare
(39:22) Effectiveness of export controls
(46:03) Sponsor: AdQuick | Found
(48:08) Future of AI and military supremacy
(58:18) China's strategic actions and global relations
(01:02:45) Wrap