Uploaded July 2026 | Updated September 2026, 3 weeks ago
Donald Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is over. Military action has resumed, the Strait of Hormuz is once again at the centre of the conflict, and the economic consequences could be profound.
In this video, I explain why wars are never just military events. They are always economic events too. They reshape trade, disrupt supply chains, drive up commodity prices and create inflationary pressures that spread throughout the global economy.
The Strait of Hormuz carries a huge share of the world’s oil and much of its jet fuel. More sustained disruption affects not only energy markets but also trade in fertilisers, industrial chemicals, and critical manufacturing supplies. Businesses will respond by delaying investment, consumers will become more cautious, and financial markets will become increasingly volatile.
I’ve argued for months that the greatest danger from this conflict would be economic rather than military. If this escalation continues, as seems likely, the risk of recession rises significantly, not because markets will panic overnight, but because the resulting uncertainty will steadily undermine confidence and investment.
Wars are always about economic power, control over resources and the revenues they generate. This one is no different. Trump just can't let go of a prize he cannot have, and so he's at risk of crashing the world economy again.
Take a look at the poll below: youtube.com/post/UgkxzxgFCS-Kb2N_02_3Yh4FqURt3MAlgL0W
00:00 Ceasefire Ends
00:49 Why the Conflict Matters
01:35 The Economics of War
02:22 Why Hormuz Is Critical
03:11 Energy Prices at Risk
04:02 Recession Fears Grow
04:56 Inflation & Supply Chains
05:49 Why Peace Matters
06:41 A Dangerous New Phase
07:23 The Economic Outlook
TRANSCRIPT
A transcript for this video is available at: taxresearch.org.uk
IF YOU WANT TO WRITE TO YOUR MP ABOUT ISSUES IN THIS VIDEO
If you want to write a letter to your MP on the issues raised in this blog post, there is a ChatGPT prompt to assist you in doing so, with full instructions, here. taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2025/06/20/chatgpt-prompt-for-a-letter-to-your-mp
HOW TO SUPPORT US
Please consider donating: ko-fi.com/taxresearch
ABOUT RICHARD MURPHY
Richard Murphy is Emeritus Professor of Accounting Practice at Sheffield University Management School. He is director of Tax Research LLP and the author of the Funding the Future blog. His best-known book is ‘The Joy of Tax’.
This video was edited by Thomas Murphy.
RICHARD MURPHY ON BLUESKY:
https://bsky.app/profile/richardjmurphy.bsky.social
OR
ON MY BLOG: taxresearch.org.uk/Blog
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INTRODUCTION: youtube.com/watch?v=HdHsRPy3060
PLAYLISTS:
The Wealth Series
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgobQLeyZYAagFDMjEFTKbhRD
Ecenomics
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgob54Gs-fOL-8OAQ-IpduwB4
Britain
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgobwTT4ATvJjsf8OO6S7wD10
Tax
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoaMni_12J6ULp3yUJisUZoY
MMT
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoZ6jvRGSW5YXu8qogE6aClX
Money
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoYnLk1c7syTvoIo8bKYUs5m
Climate Change
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgob4_wsYaVivWd2WumpPLYwJ
USA
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoYYd3dSyU2Oyl3x7bWJOP7H
Labour
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoa-KhzG-fnjDSg1WROL1zMw
The Trump Administration
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgobz41-GLimTho27A3flVWQx
#richardmurphy #richardjmurphy #economy #economics #accountancy #accounting #tax #uktax #ukeconomy #greennewdeal #uk #money #economy #politics #government #tax #labour #health #life #Trump #Iran #MiddleEast #StraitOfHormuz #OilPrices #GlobalEconomy #Recession #Inflation #EnergyCrisis #EconomicAnalysis #WorldNews #Geopolitics #CurrentAffairs #FinancialMarkets #SupplyChains #Politics #Economics #RichardMurphy #FundingTheFuture #GlobalRisk
Donald Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is over. Military action has resumed, the Strait of Hormuz is once again at the centre of the conflict, and the economic consequences could be profound.
In this video, I explain why wars are never just military events. They are always economic events too. They reshape trade, disrupt supply chains, drive up commodity prices and create inflationary pressures that spread throughout the global economy.
The Strait of Hormuz carries a huge share of the world’s oil and much of its jet fuel. More sustained disruption affects not only energy markets but also trade in fertilisers, industrial chemicals, and critical manufacturing supplies. Businesses will respond by delaying investment, consumers will become more cautious, and financial markets will become increasingly volatile.
I’ve argued for months that the greatest danger from this conflict would be economic rather than military. If this escalation continues, as seems likely, the risk of recession rises significantly, not because markets will panic overnight, but because the resulting uncertainty will steadily undermine confidence and investment.
Wars are always about economic power, control over resources and the revenues they generate. This one is no different. Trump just can't let go of a prize he cannot have, and so he's at risk of crashing the world economy again.
Take a look at the poll below: youtube.com/post/UgkxzxgFCS-Kb2N_02_3Yh4FqURt3MAlgL0W
00:00 Ceasefire Ends
00:49 Why the Conflict Matters
01:35 The Economics of War
02:22 Why Hormuz Is Critical
03:11 Energy Prices at Risk
04:02 Recession Fears Grow
04:56 Inflation & Supply Chains
05:49 Why Peace Matters
06:41 A Dangerous New Phase
07:23 The Economic Outlook
TRANSCRIPT
A transcript for this video is available at: taxresearch.org.uk
IF YOU WANT TO WRITE TO YOUR MP ABOUT ISSUES IN THIS VIDEO
If you want to write a letter to your MP on the issues raised in this blog post, there is a ChatGPT prompt to assist you in doing so, with full instructions, here. taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2025/06/20/chatgpt-prompt-for-a-letter-to-your-mp
HOW TO SUPPORT US
Please consider donating: ko-fi.com/taxresearch
ABOUT RICHARD MURPHY
Richard Murphy is Emeritus Professor of Accounting Practice at Sheffield University Management School. He is director of Tax Research LLP and the author of the Funding the Future blog. His best-known book is ‘The Joy of Tax’.
This video was edited by Thomas Murphy.
RICHARD MURPHY ON BLUESKY:
https://bsky.app/profile/richardjmurphy.bsky.social
OR
ON MY BLOG: taxresearch.org.uk/Blog
HIT SUBSCRIBE & GET NOTIFICATIONS
Subscribe and get notified of new videos released.
INTRODUCTION: youtube.com/watch?v=HdHsRPy3060
PLAYLISTS:
The Wealth Series
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgobQLeyZYAagFDMjEFTKbhRD
Ecenomics
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgob54Gs-fOL-8OAQ-IpduwB4
Britain
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgobwTT4ATvJjsf8OO6S7wD10
Tax
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoaMni_12J6ULp3yUJisUZoY
MMT
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoZ6jvRGSW5YXu8qogE6aClX
Money
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoYnLk1c7syTvoIo8bKYUs5m
Climate Change
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgob4_wsYaVivWd2WumpPLYwJ
USA
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoYYd3dSyU2Oyl3x7bWJOP7H
Labour
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgoa-KhzG-fnjDSg1WROL1zMw
The Trump Administration
youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvRueM6wBgobz41-GLimTho27A3flVWQx
#richardmurphy #richardjmurphy #economy #economics #accountancy #accounting #tax #uktax #ukeconomy #greennewdeal #uk #money #economy #politics #government #tax #labour #health #life #Trump #Iran #MiddleEast #StraitOfHormuz #OilPrices #GlobalEconomy #Recession #Inflation #EnergyCrisis #EconomicAnalysis #WorldNews #Geopolitics #CurrentAffairs #FinancialMarkets #SupplyChains #Politics #Economics #RichardMurphy #FundingTheFuture #GlobalRisk
