Uploaded April 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago

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As the war in Iran enters its eighth week, Trump and Iran are inching closer to a deal. Axios Global Security Correspondent Barak Ravid joins Mike Allen to unpack the high-stakes negotiations happening behind the scenes.

In this episode, Ravid reveals how the U.S. and Iran are inching toward a one-page "framework deal," the surprising role of Pakistan as a central mediator, and why President Trump’s "economic fury" remains a looming threat if talks collapse.

Timestamps
0:00 - State of the War: Day 47 update
0:40 - Are we closer to a peace deal or a collapse?
2:00 - Why U.S. military assets aren’t leaving the region
4:21 - Inside the "One-Pager": The framework to end the war
6:55 - Scenario Analysis: Economic chokehold vs. kinetic action
8:32 - Why both sides are motivated to find a way out now
9:12 - The Pakistani Factor: How they became the primary mediators
13:22 - The psychological and political impact in Israel
14:58 - Netanyahu’s political gamble and the latest polls
17:28 - Trump’s Strategy: The "deal on his terms" ultimatum
19:30 - The danger of a third Iranian miscalculation