Uploaded January 2026 | Updated September 2026, 3 weeks ago
Learn more at rebellionaire.com
Wall Street relies on models that work well most of the time.
Until they don’t.
In this video, we break down why traditional valuation tools — specifically CAPM and beta — often fail when applied to disruptive, fast-evolving companies.
Using Lemonade as a case study, we explain:
- Why backward-looking risk metrics can misprice innovation
- How beta can exaggerate risk early and understate it later
- Why execution risk and industry risk aren’t the same thing
- How small assumptions quietly drive massive valuation differences
This isn’t about throwing out finance theory. We use these models every day.
It’s about understanding where the rules break — and how that creates opportunity for long-term investors.
This video is part of an ongoing series where we dig into what Wall Street gets wrong, why it happens, and how thinking differently can change outcomes.
This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.
Subscribe for more deep dives on markets, technology, and long-term investing.
Rebellionaire is a brand of Halter Ferguson Financial. hffinancial.com/disclaimer
As of January 13th, 2026, clients and employees of our firm Halter Ferguson Financial own Lemonade, Inc. and Tesla stock and/or options and thereby stand to materially benefit from a rise in the share price. Past performance is no assurance of future results. Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. (“Halter Ferguson Financial”) is a registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of Indiana. A complete list of all recommendations will be provided if requested for the preceding period of not less than one year. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. Opinions expressed are those of Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. and are subject to change, not guaranteed and should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell any security.
Halter Ferguson Financial is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment advisor does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability.
Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author/presenter as of the date of publication and are subject to change and do not constitute personalized investment advice. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies presented. No content should be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein.
Halter Ferguson Financial does not represent, warranty, or imply that the services or methods of analysis employed by the Firm can or will predict future results, successfully identify market tops or bottoms, or insulate clients from losses due to market corrections or declines.
Investments are subject to market risks and potential loss of principal invested, and all investment strategies likewise have the potential for profit or loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client's portfolio. There are also no assurances that any portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark.
Learn more at rebellionaire.com
Wall Street relies on models that work well most of the time.
Until they don’t.
In this video, we break down why traditional valuation tools — specifically CAPM and beta — often fail when applied to disruptive, fast-evolving companies.
Using Lemonade as a case study, we explain:
- Why backward-looking risk metrics can misprice innovation
- How beta can exaggerate risk early and understate it later
- Why execution risk and industry risk aren’t the same thing
- How small assumptions quietly drive massive valuation differences
This isn’t about throwing out finance theory. We use these models every day.
It’s about understanding where the rules break — and how that creates opportunity for long-term investors.
This video is part of an ongoing series where we dig into what Wall Street gets wrong, why it happens, and how thinking differently can change outcomes.
This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.
Subscribe for more deep dives on markets, technology, and long-term investing.
Rebellionaire is a brand of Halter Ferguson Financial. hffinancial.com/disclaimer
As of January 13th, 2026, clients and employees of our firm Halter Ferguson Financial own Lemonade, Inc. and Tesla stock and/or options and thereby stand to materially benefit from a rise in the share price. Past performance is no assurance of future results. Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. (“Halter Ferguson Financial”) is a registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of Indiana. A complete list of all recommendations will be provided if requested for the preceding period of not less than one year. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. Opinions expressed are those of Halter Ferguson Financial, Inc. and are subject to change, not guaranteed and should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell any security.
Halter Ferguson Financial is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment advisor does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability.
Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author/presenter as of the date of publication and are subject to change and do not constitute personalized investment advice. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the strategies presented. No content should be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein.
Halter Ferguson Financial does not represent, warranty, or imply that the services or methods of analysis employed by the Firm can or will predict future results, successfully identify market tops or bottoms, or insulate clients from losses due to market corrections or declines.
Investments are subject to market risks and potential loss of principal invested, and all investment strategies likewise have the potential for profit or loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client's portfolio. There are also no assurances that any portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark.
