Uploaded March 2024 | Updated September 2026, 2 hours ago
Just use a binomial distribution instead. So much easier to talk about.
Average Stats are used in Fire Emblem discussion because they represent the supposed "most likely" outcome for a unit, mathematically calculated via adding their growth rates in a linear fashion. While this is useful in a vacuum, the real performance of a unit in a game with randomized growths like most FEs is more akin to a roulette wheel, where you could go hot and hit even a rare number every time, or go cold and never hit even a super high rate, but you will never get partial credit and nothing is guaranteed.
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Just use a binomial distribution instead. So much easier to talk about.
Average Stats are used in Fire Emblem discussion because they represent the supposed "most likely" outcome for a unit, mathematically calculated via adding their growth rates in a linear fashion. While this is useful in a vacuum, the real performance of a unit in a game with randomized growths like most FEs is more akin to a roulette wheel, where you could go hot and hit even a rare number every time, or go cold and never hit even a super high rate, but you will never get partial credit and nothing is guaranteed.
Discord: discord.gg/3zh5eCeM7C
KoFi: ko-fi.com/mythrilzenith36568
Channel membership youtube.com/channel/UCgZyhzVQU0PL4r4lisv7u5w/join
