Uploaded September 2022 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Howard Marks has long questioned the value of macro forecasts, but in his latest memo, he explains why creating profitable forecasts is so difficult. He discusses the incredible complexity involved in modeling an economy and makes it clear that forecasting mostly provides the illusion of knowledge. He argues that investors are better off accepting reality — that the macro future is largely unknowable — and focusing on what they can know.
The memo is read by LJ Ganser.
You can read the memo here (oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-illusion-of-knowledge) (oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-illusion-of-knowledge).
Howard Marks has long questioned the value of macro forecasts, but in his latest memo, he explains why creating profitable forecasts is so difficult. He discusses the incredible complexity involved in modeling an economy and makes it clear that forecasting mostly provides the illusion of knowledge. He argues that investors are better off accepting reality — that the macro future is largely unknowable — and focusing on what they can know.
The memo is read by LJ Ganser.
You can read the memo here (oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-illusion-of-knowledge) (oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-illusion-of-knowledge).
