The Julia La Roche Show | The Economy Is NOT Headed For A Recession — Here's Why @TheJuliaLaRocheShow | Uploaded September 2023 | Updated October 2024, 1 day ago.
Sam Burns, chief strategist of Mill Street Research (www.millstreetresearch.com), an independent research firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 105.
In this episode, Burns explains how he deploys a top-down macro research approach with bottoms-up analysis.
When it comes to the economy, Burns points out that the economic data has been better than expected and that inflation is headed in the right direction after the worst of it peaked last year. He doesn’t expect an imminent recession in the next six to 12 months. Instead, he expects a gradual slowdown in the economy rather than a sudden fall off a cliff.
As for markets, Burns is overweight equities compared to bonds. Burns, who had been bullish stocks earlier this year amid the pessimism, pointed out that things have gotten back to more normal expectations.
Burns has over 20 years of experience as a market strategist, providing analysis and commentary to institutional investors globally. Prior to founding Mill Street Research in 2016, Burns worked as a senior strategist at leading firms, including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research. Mill Street Research provides a suite of consistently updated research reports for institutional investors covering asset allocation, country allocation, sector and industry selection, and a robust quantitative stock selection process.
Learn more at www.millstreetresearch.com.
0:00 Welcome Sam Burns to the show
0:57 Top-down, bottom-up approach to research
2:23 Macro view today
4:15 Better-than-expected economic data, inflation coming down
6:13 The balance between fiscal and monetary policy
8:14 A gradual slowdown in the economy
11:05 Worst of inflation peaked last year
14:19 Can inflation get to 2-2.5%?
16:06 Higher for longer
18:10 Not currently expecting a recession in next 6-12 months
20:00 Consumer
22:25 Markets
25:08 Bond market
32:00 Stock market
36:40 Opportunities in the market
39:15 Traditional 60/40
41:30 Parting thoughts
Sam Burns, chief strategist of Mill Street Research (www.millstreetresearch.com), an independent research firm, joins Julia La Roche on episode 105.
In this episode, Burns explains how he deploys a top-down macro research approach with bottoms-up analysis.
When it comes to the economy, Burns points out that the economic data has been better than expected and that inflation is headed in the right direction after the worst of it peaked last year. He doesn’t expect an imminent recession in the next six to 12 months. Instead, he expects a gradual slowdown in the economy rather than a sudden fall off a cliff.
As for markets, Burns is overweight equities compared to bonds. Burns, who had been bullish stocks earlier this year amid the pessimism, pointed out that things have gotten back to more normal expectations.
Burns has over 20 years of experience as a market strategist, providing analysis and commentary to institutional investors globally. Prior to founding Mill Street Research in 2016, Burns worked as a senior strategist at leading firms, including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research. Mill Street Research provides a suite of consistently updated research reports for institutional investors covering asset allocation, country allocation, sector and industry selection, and a robust quantitative stock selection process.
Learn more at www.millstreetresearch.com.
0:00 Welcome Sam Burns to the show
0:57 Top-down, bottom-up approach to research
2:23 Macro view today
4:15 Better-than-expected economic data, inflation coming down
6:13 The balance between fiscal and monetary policy
8:14 A gradual slowdown in the economy
11:05 Worst of inflation peaked last year
14:19 Can inflation get to 2-2.5%?
16:06 Higher for longer
18:10 Not currently expecting a recession in next 6-12 months
20:00 Consumer
22:25 Markets
25:08 Bond market
32:00 Stock market
36:40 Opportunities in the market
39:15 Traditional 60/40
41:30 Parting thoughts
