Uploaded December 2020 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Clickbait thumbnail- but I deliver. To give a bit of context, strange skins from the Gentlemann's Collection can only be acquired by using strange stat-clocks on civilian grade skins, and then trading up to the higher grades (freelance, mercenary, and then commando). The civilian grade skins from this collection are insanely expensive, so performing anything more than a high risk trade up with these skins will bankrupt you. I structured ten trades-ups, each with a 10% chance to get a freelance grade Gentlemann's skin, and I only got ONE out of ten. Then, I threw that one skin into the freelance to mercenary grade trade-up, so another 10% chance, but I only wanted the High Roller's SMG (since I already own a High Roller's Medigun, and I didn't want the Top Shelf Knife or Revolver). So I had a 2.5% chance to get the specific skin, and I got it.
This is about as lucky as you can get with a trade up, minus going for something with less than a 1% chance.
Connect!
Twitter: twitter.com/Zesty_Jesus
Twitch: twitch.tv/zesty_jesus
Discord: discord.gg/BcpHpeZXmJ
Music Used:
Main Theme (Night) - Wii Shop Channel (SilvaGunner)
Delfino Plaza - Super Mario Sunshine
Whatever it means- Jakim
Hope everyone had a good year! Sorry about not having an end-of-the-year clipdump, I just didn't have any clips to use. Have this instead.
Clickbait thumbnail- but I deliver. To give a bit of context, strange skins from the Gentlemann's Collection can only be acquired by using strange stat-clocks on civilian grade skins, and then trading up to the higher grades (freelance, mercenary, and then commando). The civilian grade skins from this collection are insanely expensive, so performing anything more than a high risk trade up with these skins will bankrupt you. I structured ten trades-ups, each with a 10% chance to get a freelance grade Gentlemann's skin, and I only got ONE out of ten. Then, I threw that one skin into the freelance to mercenary grade trade-up, so another 10% chance, but I only wanted the High Roller's SMG (since I already own a High Roller's Medigun, and I didn't want the Top Shelf Knife or Revolver). So I had a 2.5% chance to get the specific skin, and I got it.
This is about as lucky as you can get with a trade up, minus going for something with less than a 1% chance.
Connect!
Twitter: twitter.com/Zesty_Jesus
Twitch: twitch.tv/zesty_jesus
Discord: discord.gg/BcpHpeZXmJ
Music Used:
Main Theme (Night) - Wii Shop Channel (SilvaGunner)
Delfino Plaza - Super Mario Sunshine
Whatever it means- Jakim
Hope everyone had a good year! Sorry about not having an end-of-the-year clipdump, I just didn't have any clips to use. Have this instead.

![The Rarest Item in TF2
Source information and caveats below!
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Twitter: https://twitter.com/Zesty_Jesus
Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/zesty_jesus
Discord (first 5 only): https://discord.gg/V3PpfyS8
2nd Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC994tfHvazuy8nSY89LPpYA
Support me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/zesty_jesus
My TF2 Server: https://zestyjesus.com/
Thumbnai Bnnuy by JauntyWeb:
https://twitter.com/JauntywebAU
Music:
Stardust Speedway Zone Act 1 - Sonic Mania [OST]
[Blue Archive] Mitsukiyo - Mischievous Step
[Blue Archive] Mitsukiyo - Lemonade Diary
Pink Guy - Fried Noodles [DVNZXL Remix]
_Sources and Caveats_
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Certain types of items were omitted from consideration, specifically glitched items, promotional items, and gifts from Valve. Quantifying the statistical probability of occurrence for these items is not possible, for obvious reasons (i.e. a gift is a gift).
Australium Drop Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dJWmNnptCy3BZClNi4JQHDPloRZPt4nXhGj-wJu6CBg/pubhtml
Article on TF2s unusual drop rate:
http://tf2finance.com/rate/
Item Counts, Item Grade Abundance, Stat-Clock Abundance:
TF2tools.net
TF2 Skin Sticker and Pattern Information:
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=591979753
CSGOs case odds:
https://www.pcgamesn.com/counter-strike-global-offensive/csgo-case-odds
https://www.csgo.com.cn/news/gamebroad/20170911/206155.shtml
By law, Chinese companies must publicly display the results of all lottery results (including case openings):
https://www.csgo.com.cn/hd/1707/lotteryrecords/index.html
Given the abysmal state of item servers, previous versions of the TF2tools webpages were accessed via the Wayback machine:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160604151026/http://www.tf2tools.net/articles/skins
Item grade abundances change with the gradual increase in the number of trade-ups performed. As time goes on, lower grade items are exchanged for higher grade items (hence elite grades going from 0.8% to 1% over the course of about a year, reflecting item consumption and generation, not a change in case odds).
Wear abundance changes are negligible over the lifespan of TF2 skins, unimpacted by trade-ups given the differing nature from CSGO trade-ups.
Note again that the odds shown in the Steam guide are not official, and appear to be largely derived from guesswork or first-order estimates. The Rarest Item in TF2](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/ydQ6FbpFSjk/mqdefault.jpg)
![TF2: The Official Demoman Weapons Tier List [Unedited]
egg TF2: The Official Demoman Weapons Tier List [Unedited]](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/yk4BkY61bJY/mqdefault.jpg)



