Uploaded August 2025 | Updated September 2026, 9 hours ago
There is an intermediate step before full self-driving (FSD): automated truck platooning, where multiple Tesla Semi trucks follow a lead vehicle with only one driver for a whole fleet. This is enabled by advanced FSD software available in 2025. This would be significant scale starting in late 2026, leveraging Tesla's Nevada factory ramping-up 50,000 trucks per year. Semi should be at 10,000–20,000 units annually in 2026. Semi trucks leveraging platooning could make $250,000 to $300,000 per truck. 20,000 trucks would be worth about $5-6 billion per year in profit in 2026 for about $200 per share. In 2027, this would be 60,000-70,000 trucks making about $17 billion per year in platooning mode or $34 billion per year in full autonomous mode. This would add $500-1200 per share.
Key benefits include massive cost savings—diesel trucks cost $1.50/mile, Tesla Semi ~$1.20/mile solo, ~$0.80/mile in a three-truck platoon (due to reduced driver needs, fuel efficiency, and higher utilization like 200,000+ miles/year), and down to $0.40–0.50/mile with full autonomy.
Robotrucking even compare robo-taxis: trucking has no price cliff after scale, constant ~$2.20/mile revenue, higher utilization (75–85%, 800–1,000 miles/day), and a $2+ trillion global market.
Projections show platooning with 100,000 vehicles yielding $28 billion/year in profit, full autonomy doubling that to $56 billion (adding ~$2,500/share to Tesla's stock at a 40 PE).
They discuss regulatory support (29 states allow driverless trailing trucks), Tesla's internal freight savings ($1 billion/year), global variations (e.g., higher rates in China due to fragmented markets), and broader impacts like lower goods costs and economic transformation.
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There is an intermediate step before full self-driving (FSD): automated truck platooning, where multiple Tesla Semi trucks follow a lead vehicle with only one driver for a whole fleet. This is enabled by advanced FSD software available in 2025. This would be significant scale starting in late 2026, leveraging Tesla's Nevada factory ramping-up 50,000 trucks per year. Semi should be at 10,000–20,000 units annually in 2026. Semi trucks leveraging platooning could make $250,000 to $300,000 per truck. 20,000 trucks would be worth about $5-6 billion per year in profit in 2026 for about $200 per share. In 2027, this would be 60,000-70,000 trucks making about $17 billion per year in platooning mode or $34 billion per year in full autonomous mode. This would add $500-1200 per share.
Key benefits include massive cost savings—diesel trucks cost $1.50/mile, Tesla Semi ~$1.20/mile solo, ~$0.80/mile in a three-truck platoon (due to reduced driver needs, fuel efficiency, and higher utilization like 200,000+ miles/year), and down to $0.40–0.50/mile with full autonomy.
Robotrucking even compare robo-taxis: trucking has no price cliff after scale, constant ~$2.20/mile revenue, higher utilization (75–85%, 800–1,000 miles/day), and a $2+ trillion global market.
Projections show platooning with 100,000 vehicles yielding $28 billion/year in profit, full autonomy doubling that to $56 billion (adding ~$2,500/share to Tesla's stock at a 40 PE).
They discuss regulatory support (29 states allow driverless trailing trucks), Tesla's internal freight savings ($1 billion/year), global variations (e.g., higher rates in China due to fragmented markets), and broader impacts like lower goods costs and economic transformation.
Follow Brian Wang on NextBigFuture.com
Follow Brian Wang on X.com/@NextBigFuture
This channel brings you the most important science and technology breakthroughs and analysis at least once per week.
