Uploaded March 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Tesla must deliver critical Full Self-Driving crash data to NHTSA by March 9 - over 8,300 records need review covering traffic violations and incidents
Robotaxi reality check: 14 incidents reported since June 2025 launch in Austin, averaging one collision per 57,000 miles (but most were at very low speeds or zero-speed collisions with only property damage)
The good news: Only 1 collision per ~13,289 trips when measured by trips rather than miles; supervised FSD still shows major crash every 5.3M miles vs average driver's 660K miles
Industry veterans say they "can't remember a time" with more uncertainty - whipsawed by tariffs, Chinese competition, flat sales, and declining profits
Risk of irrelevance: U.S. automakers could become "niche manufacturers" of pickups/SUVs that only Americans buy
Trump's rollback of clean air regulations gives short-term relief for profitable gas vehicles, but long-term competitiveness is in jeopardy as China dominates EV innovation
Morgan Stanley managing massive debt payoff for both X (Twitter) and xAI - early repayment will include premium of ~$1.17 on the dollar
Context: SpaceX acquired xAI in February at $250B valuation; xAI had previously acquired X in 2025 (inheriting $12B debt)
xAI raised $20B in Series E funding in January, but source of repayment capital remains undisclosed
Major compromise reached: Senate Bill 6354 would allow Rivian and Lucid to sell direct-to-consumer in Washington (joining Tesla), with support from auto dealers who previously opposed this
Strategic move by Rivian: Company had pledged $20M+ for November 2026 ballot initiative if legislation failed - dealers chose to negotiate rather than face expensive ballot battle
Strict eligibility: Only U.S. companies exclusively producing BEVs with 300+ cars registered in WA and no franchise agreements qualify - blocks Chinese EVs and legacy automakers from using loophole
Decade-old EVs crushing predictions: Over 90% of EVs 10+ years old are still on original batteries; 2010 predictions of 7-year lifespan were dramatically wrong
Real-world data: EVs with 150K+ miles retain at least 83% of original range; 3-year-old EVs averaging 95%+ battery health at auctions
Why they last: Lab tests were harsher than real-world driving (constant full discharge vs. regenerative braking); temperature management and software systems working better than expected
Tesla must deliver critical Full Self-Driving crash data to NHTSA by March 9 - over 8,300 records need review covering traffic violations and incidents
Robotaxi reality check: 14 incidents reported since June 2025 launch in Austin, averaging one collision per 57,000 miles (but most were at very low speeds or zero-speed collisions with only property damage)
The good news: Only 1 collision per ~13,289 trips when measured by trips rather than miles; supervised FSD still shows major crash every 5.3M miles vs average driver's 660K miles
Industry veterans say they "can't remember a time" with more uncertainty - whipsawed by tariffs, Chinese competition, flat sales, and declining profits
Risk of irrelevance: U.S. automakers could become "niche manufacturers" of pickups/SUVs that only Americans buy
Trump's rollback of clean air regulations gives short-term relief for profitable gas vehicles, but long-term competitiveness is in jeopardy as China dominates EV innovation
Morgan Stanley managing massive debt payoff for both X (Twitter) and xAI - early repayment will include premium of ~$1.17 on the dollar
Context: SpaceX acquired xAI in February at $250B valuation; xAI had previously acquired X in 2025 (inheriting $12B debt)
xAI raised $20B in Series E funding in January, but source of repayment capital remains undisclosed
Major compromise reached: Senate Bill 6354 would allow Rivian and Lucid to sell direct-to-consumer in Washington (joining Tesla), with support from auto dealers who previously opposed this
Strategic move by Rivian: Company had pledged $20M+ for November 2026 ballot initiative if legislation failed - dealers chose to negotiate rather than face expensive ballot battle
Strict eligibility: Only U.S. companies exclusively producing BEVs with 300+ cars registered in WA and no franchise agreements qualify - blocks Chinese EVs and legacy automakers from using loophole
Decade-old EVs crushing predictions: Over 90% of EVs 10+ years old are still on original batteries; 2010 predictions of 7-year lifespan were dramatically wrong
Real-world data: EVs with 150K+ miles retain at least 83% of original range; 3-year-old EVs averaging 95%+ battery health at auctions
Why they last: Lab tests were harsher than real-world driving (constant full discharge vs. regenerative braking); temperature management and software systems working better than expected
