South China Sea Arbitration Anniversary at 10: Why the Philippines Is Still Winning | EP872 @taiwan_talks
South China Sea Arbitration Anniversary at 10: Why the Philippines Is Still Winning | EP872  @taiwan_talks
Uploaded July 2026 | Updated September 2026, 3 weeks ago
It’s the 10th anniversary of a landmark decision by the UN Permanent Court of Arbitration invalidated Beijing’s nine-dash line claim in the South China Sea, tensions in the region are higher than ever. China has expanded its coast guard presence around Scarborough Shoal, increased military and maritime patrols across the First Island Chain and continued to reject the 2016 ruling as "illegal" and "null and void." To mark the anniversary, we speak with former Philippine Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio, one of the key architects of Manila’s landmark legal victory, about what the ruling has achieved — and where it has fallen short. In this episode, we examine the legacy of the 2016 decision, Beijing’s response and how the Philippines, Japan and other regional partners are adapting to China’s growing maritime pressure.

*Recorded on July 6, 2026 at 3pm Taiwan Standard Time

Host/Senior Producer: Yin Khvat
Producer: Miguel Yang
Consultant: George Nee
Research Assistant: Ryan Pham

Our guests:

Antonio Carpio
- Former Philippine Supreme Court Associate Justice
Ray Powell
- SeaLight Foundation Executive Director
Guermantes Lailari
- Jewish Policy Center Senior Non-Resident Fellow

Chapters:
00:00:00 – 10 Years Since S. China Sea Ruling
00:01:47 – Justice Carpio on 2016 Decision
00:07:55 – What Has UN Ruling Changed?
00:17:58 – Japan, Philippines Negotiate Treaty




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South China Sea Arbitration Anniversary at 10: Why the Philippines Is Still Winning | EP872

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