Uploaded August 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
RBA rate hike odds may be underpriced because the August forecast round quietly lowered the bar for an upside inflation surprise.
David Scutt, Senior Market Analyst for Global Macro at StoneX Media, explains how the Reserve Bank of Australia's updated forecasts reshaped its reaction function.
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its unemployment profile across the horizon and trimmed its near term inflation forecasts, which means the labor market has to weaken far more to argue against tightening. Governor Michele Bullock reinforced that point in her press conference, and wages, two labor force reports, monthly CPI, quarterly GDP and household spending all land before the September RBA meeting. Firmer energy prices and the return of the full fuel excise add to the near term inflation risk.
Discover Actionable Insights with the latest Market Outlook Reports: intel.stonex.com/offer?language=en&campaignId=A908C315-DC62-4F35-AC16-870BB71E84D1
0:00 RBA Forecasts Look Dovish
0:31 RBA Hike Hurdle Drops Lower
1:23 Bullock Warns on Inflation
1:51 Swaps Pricing Looks Skinny
2:37 Australian Data Run Ahead
Like and subscribe for more financial market insights.
#RBA #StoneX #DavidScutt #InterestRates
RBA rate hike odds may be underpriced because the August forecast round quietly lowered the bar for an upside inflation surprise.
David Scutt, Senior Market Analyst for Global Macro at StoneX Media, explains how the Reserve Bank of Australia's updated forecasts reshaped its reaction function.
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its unemployment profile across the horizon and trimmed its near term inflation forecasts, which means the labor market has to weaken far more to argue against tightening. Governor Michele Bullock reinforced that point in her press conference, and wages, two labor force reports, monthly CPI, quarterly GDP and household spending all land before the September RBA meeting. Firmer energy prices and the return of the full fuel excise add to the near term inflation risk.
Discover Actionable Insights with the latest Market Outlook Reports: intel.stonex.com/offer?language=en&campaignId=A908C315-DC62-4F35-AC16-870BB71E84D1
0:00 RBA Forecasts Look Dovish
0:31 RBA Hike Hurdle Drops Lower
1:23 Bullock Warns on Inflation
1:51 Swaps Pricing Looks Skinny
2:37 Australian Data Run Ahead
Like and subscribe for more financial market insights.
#RBA #StoneX #DavidScutt #InterestRates
