Uploaded July 2021 | Updated September 2026, 1 day ago
Recorded in the Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker Colloquium on the 30th of June 2021
Prof. Dr. Mathias Frisch (Hannover): Uses and misuses of models in pandemic policy advice
Have epidemiological models of the Covid-19 pandemic been a failure, as some have argued? Have policy makers violated their epistemic duty in the pandemic by acting on deeply uncertain evidence? In this talk I examine the epistemic status of epidemiological models and possible roles they can play in scientific policy advice in situations characterized by missing data and poorly constrained parameter-values. I will argue that some criticisms presuppose an overly narrow conception of possible uses of models. But I will discuss pitfalls in using models for policy advice to which some of the criticisms draw attention. Finally, I will suggest one framework for how to use uncertain modeling results in policy decisions under extreme urgency.
Recorded in the Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker Colloquium on the 30th of June 2021
Prof. Dr. Mathias Frisch (Hannover): Uses and misuses of models in pandemic policy advice
Have epidemiological models of the Covid-19 pandemic been a failure, as some have argued? Have policy makers violated their epistemic duty in the pandemic by acting on deeply uncertain evidence? In this talk I examine the epistemic status of epidemiological models and possible roles they can play in scientific policy advice in situations characterized by missing data and poorly constrained parameter-values. I will argue that some criticisms presuppose an overly narrow conception of possible uses of models. But I will discuss pitfalls in using models for policy advice to which some of the criticisms draw attention. Finally, I will suggest one framework for how to use uncertain modeling results in policy decisions under extreme urgency.
