Uploaded December 2021 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Probability, Risk and Randomness, a talk by Andrew Pargeter-Davies (Manchester Grammar School)
The 2021 IMA North West Branch Mathematics Teacher Lecture
Probability is often taught as the abstract version of data handling. Students are taught that probability exists in an idealised world of equally likely outcomes and, when it is connected to reality via an estimate of relative frequency, this is in the context of a number of repeated trials being used to estimate probability. As a result, students rarely have an opportunity to develop a feeling for how likely a single event is to occur – there is no analogue of the Large Data Set when talking about real world probabilities.
In this talk we look at the concept of randomness as a unifying thread; how its meaning in everyday life is distinct from its use in Mathematics and how “chance” is not “random”. Along the way we will discuss why we are bad judges of risk, how to give students a better framework to conceptualise probability and will meet the most random number in the world.
About the Speaker
Andrew Pargeter-Davies has worked and taught in secondary schools and universities for almost 30 years, primarily as a classroom Maths teacher. During this time his responsibilities have included being KS3 Coordinator, KS5 Coordinator, Whole School Numeracy Coordinator and Second-in-Department. He has held two research bursaries through Cambridge University Education Department to investigate the use of technology in the classroom. Andrew currently works at the Manchester Grammar School, where he is responsible for A-level Mathematics teaching.
Probability, Risk and Randomness, a talk by Andrew Pargeter-Davies (Manchester Grammar School)
The 2021 IMA North West Branch Mathematics Teacher Lecture
Probability is often taught as the abstract version of data handling. Students are taught that probability exists in an idealised world of equally likely outcomes and, when it is connected to reality via an estimate of relative frequency, this is in the context of a number of repeated trials being used to estimate probability. As a result, students rarely have an opportunity to develop a feeling for how likely a single event is to occur – there is no analogue of the Large Data Set when talking about real world probabilities.
In this talk we look at the concept of randomness as a unifying thread; how its meaning in everyday life is distinct from its use in Mathematics and how “chance” is not “random”. Along the way we will discuss why we are bad judges of risk, how to give students a better framework to conceptualise probability and will meet the most random number in the world.
About the Speaker
Andrew Pargeter-Davies has worked and taught in secondary schools and universities for almost 30 years, primarily as a classroom Maths teacher. During this time his responsibilities have included being KS3 Coordinator, KS5 Coordinator, Whole School Numeracy Coordinator and Second-in-Department. He has held two research bursaries through Cambridge University Education Department to investigate the use of technology in the classroom. Andrew currently works at the Manchester Grammar School, where he is responsible for A-level Mathematics teaching.
