[Oxford Seminar] Greg Neustroev | The Treachery of Certificates: Ceci n’est pas une supermartingale @ToposInstitute
[Oxford Seminar] Greg Neustroev | The Treachery of Certificates: Ceci n’est pas une supermartingale  @ToposInstitute
Uploaded July 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Oxford Seminar, June 25 2026

You can view the listing for this talk online at https://topos.institute/events/oxford-seminar/talks/2026-06-25_neustroev_treachery.html

Speaker: Greg Neustroev

Full Title: The Treachery of Certificates: Ceci n’est pas une supermartingale

Abstract: To prove that a stochastic system exhibits a desired behavior with high probability (for example, that it reaches a target while avoiding danger) it often suffices to produce a single function on its states satisfying a few pointwise inequalities: a supermartingale certificate. Finding such a function is the hard part; checking one is easy, which is why neural networks, as flexible function-searchers, have become a natural tool for the job.

But a certificate is a static object — a function you can write down — while the object that actually carries the proof is a stochastic process: its dynamic interpretation as it rides the system's randomness. These are not the same thing, and the passage between them is not canonical: one function can induce many supermartingales, depending on how we stop, shift, or time-compensate it. We'll build both objects from scratch, make the construction explicit, and see why conflating them — a common slip, even among practitioners — is exactly where soundness is won or lost.
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[Oxford Seminar] Greg Neustroev | The Treachery of Certificates: Ceci n’est pas une supermartingale

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