Uploaded July 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 hours ago
#ArtificialIntelligence #USChina #ExportControls
On June 12, 2026, the U.S. government placed Anthropic’s two most capable models under export controls, the first time a frontier AI model itself, rather than the chips beneath, it was treated as a controlled item. While the controls were later removed, it presented a new source of uncertainty for closed models coming out of American frontier labs. At almost exactly the same time, Chinese firms, specifically Z.ai and Moonshot, released several highly capable open-source models, which sharpened a core tension in U.S. strategy: promoting open diffusion to extend American influence while locking down its most advanced, closed systems. In this program, Samm Sacks and Kevin Xu join Graham Webster to unpack why the export controls were placed, why China has been leaning into open-source, and what this means for U.S. and Chinese leadership in artificial intelligence, respectively.
About the program: ncuscr.org/event/open-or-closed-export-controls-and-the-future-of-u-s-china-ai
0:00 – Teaser: The Cybersecurity Stakes of Frontier AI
0:32 – Introductions: Graham Webster, Samm Sacks & Kevin Xu
1:07 – Setting the Stage: Open vs. Closed AI in the U.S.-China Race
2:51 – Timeline: How the Fable/Mythos Export Controls Happened
4:18 – Fallout: OpenAI Restrictions and a New Quasi-Licensing Regime
5:35 – U.S. Export Controls: Historical Context and What's New
10:14 – China's Open-Weight Surge: Z.ai's GLM 5.2
11:21 – Open Source vs. Open Weights, Explained
14:57 – Why Open Weights Matter: No One Can Shut You Off
16:21 – DeepSeek, Market Shock, and China's Open-Source Ethos
19:40 – Moonshot's Kimi K3 and the Power of Going Open
20:16 – Data Security Risks of Chinese Open-Weight Models
32:28 – The Guardrail Gap: Closed Safety Rules vs. Open Access
33:34 – Competing Narratives: "Win the Race" vs. "Secure and Controllable"
35:39 – Assessing the Rhetoric: Substance or Spin?
38:23 – Loss of Control: When AI Models Go Rogue
41:48 – Lightning Round: Predictions for U.S. and Chinese AI Policy
45:08 – Closing Thoughts and Thanks
_____________________________________________
NCUSCR fosters U.S.-China communication and exchange in support of productive bilateral relations and U.S. interests. Learn more: ncuscr.org/about.
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► Support our mission to promote understanding and cooperation between the United States and China: secure.givelively.org/donate/ncuscr/promote-engagement
#ArtificialIntelligence #USChina #ExportControls
On June 12, 2026, the U.S. government placed Anthropic’s two most capable models under export controls, the first time a frontier AI model itself, rather than the chips beneath, it was treated as a controlled item. While the controls were later removed, it presented a new source of uncertainty for closed models coming out of American frontier labs. At almost exactly the same time, Chinese firms, specifically Z.ai and Moonshot, released several highly capable open-source models, which sharpened a core tension in U.S. strategy: promoting open diffusion to extend American influence while locking down its most advanced, closed systems. In this program, Samm Sacks and Kevin Xu join Graham Webster to unpack why the export controls were placed, why China has been leaning into open-source, and what this means for U.S. and Chinese leadership in artificial intelligence, respectively.
About the program: ncuscr.org/event/open-or-closed-export-controls-and-the-future-of-u-s-china-ai
0:00 – Teaser: The Cybersecurity Stakes of Frontier AI
0:32 – Introductions: Graham Webster, Samm Sacks & Kevin Xu
1:07 – Setting the Stage: Open vs. Closed AI in the U.S.-China Race
2:51 – Timeline: How the Fable/Mythos Export Controls Happened
4:18 – Fallout: OpenAI Restrictions and a New Quasi-Licensing Regime
5:35 – U.S. Export Controls: Historical Context and What's New
10:14 – China's Open-Weight Surge: Z.ai's GLM 5.2
11:21 – Open Source vs. Open Weights, Explained
14:57 – Why Open Weights Matter: No One Can Shut You Off
16:21 – DeepSeek, Market Shock, and China's Open-Source Ethos
19:40 – Moonshot's Kimi K3 and the Power of Going Open
20:16 – Data Security Risks of Chinese Open-Weight Models
32:28 – The Guardrail Gap: Closed Safety Rules vs. Open Access
33:34 – Competing Narratives: "Win the Race" vs. "Secure and Controllable"
35:39 – Assessing the Rhetoric: Substance or Spin?
38:23 – Loss of Control: When AI Models Go Rogue
41:48 – Lightning Round: Predictions for U.S. and Chinese AI Policy
45:08 – Closing Thoughts and Thanks
_____________________________________________
NCUSCR fosters U.S.-China communication and exchange in support of productive bilateral relations and U.S. interests. Learn more: ncuscr.org/about.
► Subscribe to our channel: ncuscr.video/subscribe-youtube
► Check out the rest of our videos and podcasts here: ncuscr.org/media
► Follow @NCUSCR on Twitter: twitter.com/ncuscr
► Facebook: facebook.com/NCUSCR
► Linkedin: linkedin.com/company/ncuscr
► Instagram: instagram.com/ncuscr
► TikTok: tiktok.com/@ncuscr1966
► Weibo: weibo.com/ncuscr
► Visit our website for the latest information on our upcoming events, programs, digital content, and more: ncuscr.org
► Support our mission to promote understanding and cooperation between the United States and China: secure.givelively.org/donate/ncuscr/promote-engagement
