Uploaded September 2026 | Updated September 2026, 1 week ago
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In this episode, Nik covers the strong jobs report and whether it is enough to push the Fed toward a rate hike. He explains why the two-year yield near 4.38% shows the market pricing in hikes more aggressively than at any point since the election, and why he thinks the Treasury and the Fed will instead find a way to force front-end rates lower, given an interest burden approaching a quarter of tax revenue. Nik also covers the 4.81% level on the ten-year, why a flattening yield curve signals demand for safe assets rather than a debt spiral, why Europe worries him more than the United States, and the level bitcoin has to close above.
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by SOUND HSA. A Health Savings Account is the most tax-advantaged account in the US tax code: contributions are tax-deductible, growth is tax-free, and withdrawals for qualified healthcare expenses are tax-free too. But most people leave their HSA sitting in cash, losing purchasing power year after year. SOUND HSA lets you hold real bitcoin inside your HSA instead. Not an ETF, not a paper claim, but real bitcoin secured in multi-institutional, multi-signature cold storage. Use code TBL to waive the fifty-dollar setup fee. Transfer an existing HSA or open a new one today: soundhsa.com
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Casa. A good custody setup survives any single failure, whether that is a lost device, a vendor's bug, or a mistake of your own. Casa is multivendor multisig: your bitcoin sits in a vault with keys spread across hardware from different manufacturers, so a bug in any one device leaves your bitcoin untouched. Casa holds one key for recovery and you hold the rest, so Casa can never move your funds. Their most popular plan is Casa Premium, a five-key vault with an onboarding kit and an advisor setup call. They can hold your hand, but they won't hold your keys. Use coupon TBL for 10% off: casa.io/premium
00:00 Strong jobs numbers and what they mean for the Fed
02:39 The NFP report and why ISM matters more
04:50 Why the two-year yield is the market to watch
06:31 The market is pricing in rate hikes
08:34 Why the Fed may be forced to go the other way
12:21 Longevity, defense, and the line items that can't come down
16:05 Warsh's task force and manipulating the front end lower
18:10 Stablecoins as statecraft, and why the midterms may not matter
19:29 The 4.81% level on the ten-year
21:31 Why a flattening curve means demand for safe assets
23:55 Bond vigilantes and why Europe worries him more
25:40 Why stocks are holding up
27:19 bitcoin versus gold breaks out
29:44 The level bitcoin has to close above
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
🚨 CHECK OUT TBL PULSE: thebitcoinlayer.com
In this episode, Nik covers the strong jobs report and whether it is enough to push the Fed toward a rate hike. He explains why the two-year yield near 4.38% shows the market pricing in hikes more aggressively than at any point since the election, and why he thinks the Treasury and the Fed will instead find a way to force front-end rates lower, given an interest burden approaching a quarter of tax revenue. Nik also covers the 4.81% level on the ten-year, why a flattening yield curve signals demand for safe assets rather than a debt spiral, why Europe worries him more than the United States, and the level bitcoin has to close above.
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by SOUND HSA. A Health Savings Account is the most tax-advantaged account in the US tax code: contributions are tax-deductible, growth is tax-free, and withdrawals for qualified healthcare expenses are tax-free too. But most people leave their HSA sitting in cash, losing purchasing power year after year. SOUND HSA lets you hold real bitcoin inside your HSA instead. Not an ETF, not a paper claim, but real bitcoin secured in multi-institutional, multi-signature cold storage. Use code TBL to waive the fifty-dollar setup fee. Transfer an existing HSA or open a new one today: soundhsa.com
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Casa. A good custody setup survives any single failure, whether that is a lost device, a vendor's bug, or a mistake of your own. Casa is multivendor multisig: your bitcoin sits in a vault with keys spread across hardware from different manufacturers, so a bug in any one device leaves your bitcoin untouched. Casa holds one key for recovery and you hold the rest, so Casa can never move your funds. Their most popular plan is Casa Premium, a five-key vault with an onboarding kit and an advisor setup call. They can hold your hand, but they won't hold your keys. Use coupon TBL for 10% off: casa.io/premium
00:00 Strong jobs numbers and what they mean for the Fed
02:39 The NFP report and why ISM matters more
04:50 Why the two-year yield is the market to watch
06:31 The market is pricing in rate hikes
08:34 Why the Fed may be forced to go the other way
12:21 Longevity, defense, and the line items that can't come down
16:05 Warsh's task force and manipulating the front end lower
18:10 Stablecoins as statecraft, and why the midterms may not matter
19:29 The 4.81% level on the ten-year
21:31 Why a flattening curve means demand for safe assets
23:55 Bond vigilantes and why Europe worries him more
25:40 Why stocks are holding up
27:19 bitcoin versus gold breaks out
29:44 The level bitcoin has to close above
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
🎙 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
🐦 Follow TBL on X: /thebitcoinlayer
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: /timevalueofbtc
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
