The Limiting FactorIn this video I'll walk you through how engineers are unlocking magnesium for lightweight vehicle castings. I'll walk you through 5 challenges and how they have been and are bering solved: Flammability, Corrosion, Size Limits, Availability & Cost, and GHG Emissions.
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Unlocking Magnesium for Lightweight Vehicle CastingsThe Limiting Factor2023-11-21 | In this video I'll walk you through how engineers are unlocking magnesium for lightweight vehicle castings. I'll walk you through 5 challenges and how they have been and are bering solved: Flammability, Corrosion, Size Limits, Availability & Cost, and GHG Emissions.
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Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTeslas Unboxed Process // A Closer LookThe Limiting Factor2024-10-08 | Tesla devoted about 4 minutes to the unboxed process at Investor Day, so today I'm going to walk you through a closer look to show how grossly inefficient and awkward the traditional vehicle manufacturing process is, why the unboxed process is such an improvement, and provide more context on some of Tesla’s key points on the unboxed process.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:19 Current Manufacturing Flow Chart 01:57 Tesla’s Animation for Traditional Vehicle Manufacturing 03:19 Traditional Vehicle Manufacturing // Video Walkthrough of Pain Points 05:25 The Model Y // A Testbed for Unboxed 06:38 Unboxed // Creating More Actionable Surface Area 08:47 The Parallel Manufacturing (Unboxed) Flow Chart 12:03 Tesla’s Animation for the Unboxed Process 13:05 The Unboxed Process // Pain Points Solved 15:02 The End Result 15:33 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTony Seba’s Vision of “Super Power” // AnalysisThe Limiting Factor2024-09-25 | Tony Seba of RethinkX has projected that by 2030, it’ll be possible to move the existing grid to 100% solar, wind, and batteries. And, as a side benefit, that system would produce hundreds of Terawatt hours of low cost surplus power, or Super Power. In this video, I'll do some analysis to see how realistic Tony's vision of super power is.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:37 What is Super Power? 05:18 The Devil is in the Details 05:59 The Grid Storage Market 07:51 Ramping Production of Solar, Wind, and Batteries 09:08 Scope 14:06 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidGeneration 2 4680 Tested // Results & AnalysisThe Limiting Factor2024-09-11 | I've now received the test results back from the UC San Diego teardown of the Generation 2 4680 cell. Today we'll look at the results and do some analysis.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:54 Cell Can Thickness 04:00 Cathode Composition 07:02 Anode Composition 08:08 Cathode Energy Density Estimate 11:40 Dry Electrode // Anode Only 12:25 Resistance 14:10 Charging Speed 15:28 Future Improvements 18:34 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidThe 4680 Hits a New Energy Density High // But how does it stack up? 🤠The Limiting Factor2024-08-28 | The 4680 now appears to be on par with the Panasonic 2170! That's because the Gen 2 4680 or Cybercell has higher energy density than expected and because after some analysis of the EPA data, the 2170 make have lower energy density than was expected.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 02:33 Energy Density Benchmarks // Question Everything 03:09 Sourcing the EPA Data 04:28 How Accurate is the EPA Data? 07:47 My Energy Density Table 10:40 The 4680 Is Now One of the Highest Energy Density EV Battery Cells 11:21 What about Pack Level Energy Density? 15:59 Why do the EPA Documents Overestimate Energy Density? 16:33 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidCybercell Teardown // The Generation 2 4680 *Bonus Content*The Limiting Factor2024-08-14 | Raw video from the teardown of Tesla's Generation 2 4680, aka the 'Cybercell' with myself and Weikang Li and Weiliang Yao of UC San Diego. The specs and full results will come in a few weeks.
Thanks to Shirley Meng for organizing the funding!
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 02:19 Pre-Teardown Chitchat 03:14 Pipe Cutter to Open the Cell 03:51 Copper Foil of the Anode // No Current Collector 05:21 Peeling the Can // It’s Thinner 05:51 Welded // No Gasket 06:16 Aluminum Foil of the Cathode // New Current Collector 08:15 Brainstorming on Current Collectors and Resistance 08:54 I Request Jelly-Roll vs Cell Can Weight 09:53 Nothing Surprising with the Jelly-Roll 10:39 Gen 1 vs Gen 2 Jelly-Roll Comparison 12:13 Cathode Jelly-Roll Measurements // Similar 12:59 Anode Jelly-Roll Measurements // Similar 13:34 Weight the Parts // Cell Can is ~20g Lighter! 14:39 Cell Can Measures ~10% Thinner (actually 33% as per the intro!) 16:59 Discussion About What’s Next for Testing
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidDry Cathode Finally Solved! What was the delay? // Tesla Q2 Battery ReportThe Limiting Factor2024-08-07 | It looks like Tesla has finally solved the dry cathode coating process! So what happened over the past 4 years to delay it? I'll cover that and more in my Tesla Q2 Battery report.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:10 Comment 1 // The 4680 is Now at a 9 GWh Run Rate 02:52 Comment 2 // The Validation Cybertruck and Cost 04:15 Mass Production Equipment and Validation 05:18 Will the Dry Cathode Cells Have Greater Energy Capacity? 07:35 Equipment Suppliers 09:33 The History of the Cathode Issues 12:22 The Damaged Cathode Roller Image 16:44 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidMaking Teslas Unboxed Process Work // Seven Key TechnologiesThe Limiting Factor2024-07-26 | Tesla's been setting the stage for the unboxed process for over a decade. In this video I'll walk you through seven technologies that, in my view, will make the unboxed process work.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:36 Gigacastings 02:54 Structural Battery Pack 04:16 Steer by Wire 05:59 48 Volts 06:52 Electric Brakes 08:34 EtherLoop and Generalized Controllers 09:59 Ribbon Wiring 10:53 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidGrid Series Video #2 // How Many Megapack Factories Will Tesla Build?The Limiting Factor2024-07-10 | In this video I'll walk you through my estimate for how many megapack factories Tesla will need to build. In short, about 6 to 13 in the next 10 years, which may eventually double or triple Tesla's market cap.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:06 Master Plan Part 3 // U.S. Terawatt hour Estimate 02:50 NREL // The Four Phases of Storage Deployment 05:07 NREL // Trimming the Four Phases Model 06:22 The Four Phases // My Edits 07:59 The Four Phases // Deployment Years 10:45 The Four Phases // Power and Energy Deployment 14:46 The Four Phases // Factoring in Battery Life 18:02 How Many Megapack Factories Does Tesla Need? 22:34 The Risks 23:48 Summary 24:52 Bonus // Megapack Factories to be Built by Country and Year
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidDigging Deeper on Teslas Etherloop Wiring SystemThe Limiting Factor2024-06-26 | Time for a deep dive on Tesla's EtherLoop, which is the final critical innovation needed for the unboxed manufacturing process. Tesla is moving from specialized hardware controllers to generalized and software defined controllers and linking them with Ethernet - and it's over 10 years in the making.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:30 Automotive Electrical Systems 101 03:34 The Evolution of Tesla’s Automotive Electrical Systems 08:02 The Importance of Insourcing Electronics Design 09:23 EtherLoop // What is it? 14:45 EtherLoop is HARD 16:46 The Cybertruck is a Mongrel 18:19 EtherLoop // Other Benefits 19:43 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidAll Our Patent are Belong to You // Tesla Patents 101The Limiting Factor2024-06-12 | Elon has said patents are for the weak and that Tesla's patents are open source, so why does Tesla still patent inventions and why does Tesla still sue companies over patent infringement. To explain this, I'll walk you through patents 101 with a focus on Tesla, including Elon's comments about patents and Tesla's 2014 blog post 'All our Patent are Belong to You.'
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:03 What is a patent? 01:33 Patent Requirements 02:31 The Social Contract of Patents 03:08 The Limits of Patents 07:02 All Our Patents are Belong to You 12:21 Patents are for the Weak 15:09 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidChinese Automakers are Going Global // How will Tesla Compete?The Limiting Factor2024-05-29 | Chinese automakers are gearing up to go global and inundate western markets with low cost EVs. Will they do the same in the U.S.? If so, how will Tesla and other U.S. automakers compete? And, flipping the question on its head, should companies like BYD be concerned about Tesla?
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:41 100% U.S. Tariff 03:50 What if BYD Built a Factory In Mexico? 07:55 Tesla vs BYD in China 11:22 BYD and Tesla to Enter Each Other’s Markets 15:20 Some Notes on Europe 15:55 Will Other U.S. Automakers Find Their Feet? 17:28 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidProf. David Howey: The Charging Curve // + Does LFP Like to be Charged to 100%?The Limiting Factor2024-05-15 | David Howey runs the Battery Intelligence Lab at the University of Oxford. In this interview we do a deep dive into battery charging curves, from determining the state of charge, to what the core problem is with charging, to trade-off decisions, and does lfp really like to be charged to 100%?
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:09 How is Charge State Determined? 08:35 Challenges with Iron vs Nickel Batteries 14:29 Sodium Ion Batteries 17:24 The Charging Curve // The Key Variables 26:56 The Charging Curve // Building the Model 30:26 Is there a Discharge Curve? 31:34 The Charging Curve // Trade-Off Decisions 37:48 Does LFP ‘Like’ to be Charged to 100%? 47:01 What Causes Rapid Changes in Charge State? 49:01 Any Improvements Coming in Charging Software? 52:19 What David is Doing and How to Follow Him
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTesla Q1 Battery Report // The Death of the 4680 Has Been Greatly ExaggeratedThe Limiting Factor2024-05-01 | My quarterly report on the Q1 earnings call from a battery perspective. This quarter there were again false reports on the 4680 ramp, so I'll also cover why the death of the 4680 has been greatly exaggerated.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:04 The Rumor Mill 02:31 The 4680 Ramp is Progressing Slowly 06:25 Cell Prices Are Cratering 09:50 Elon Provides Context on the 4680 Project 12:10 A Note on Lithium Supply 13:00 4680 // Unexpected Benefits for Third Party Supply 13:53 Inflation Reduction Act Incentives // A Market Distortion 16:33 Summary 18:00 A Note on the Megapack Ramp
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTeslas Next Gen Compact Vehicle // Stainless Steel vs PaintThe Limiting Factor2024-04-16 | Will Tesla's Next Gen Compact Vehicle use stainless steel or paint? Or will it use plastic or a new coating technique? Today I'll walk you through the options.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 02:05 Cost to Paint the Vehicle 05:33 Material Cost for Stainless Steel 09:25 Manufacturing Costs for Stainless Steel 12:40 A Split Verdict 14:33 But What About Plastic? 16:49 Tom Zhou’s Comment 18:54 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidCATL M3P Deep Dive // The Manganese DemonsThe Limiting Factor2024-04-03 | In this video I'll do a deep dive in CATL's M3P chemistry, which is an LMFP chemistry with some additional dopants. LMFP increases the energy density of LFP by 15-20% by adding some additional manganese. The question is, if that's how simple it is, why didn't this happen before? In short, it's manganese demons like Jahn-Teller effects and dissolution issues.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:25 LMFP is LFP Doped with Manganese 02:14 Challenge #1 // Electronic Conductivity 03:17 Challenge #2 // Jahn-Teller Effects 04:47 Challenge #3 // Dissolution 05:26 How M3P Solves the Jahn-Teller Effects 07:00 Challenge #4 // Ionic Conductivity 09:01 How Particle Design Solves the Dissolution Issues 12:24 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidProfessor Shirley Meng: Sodium Ion Batteries // Deep DiveThe Limiting Factor2024-03-26 | Professor Shirley Meng, Chief Scientist at Argonne National Laboratory, has been leading the charge on Sodium Ion Batteries. In this video we do a deep dive on several aspects of sodium ion batteries with a focus on the U.S., including the history, strengths and weaknesses, readiness level, supply chain, and the future of sodium ion batteries.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:08 Shirley’s Background with Sodium Ion 04:19 History of Sodium Ion 06:07 Sodium Ion Strengths and Weaknesses 10:51 Sodium Ion Tech Readiness Level 13:55 Showstoppers 15:33 The More Options the Better for the Energy Transition 16:40 We Need to Look Inward and Focus on Execution 20:52 Refining Sodium 21:26 Manufacturing the Cathode and Other Materials 23:34 Ultra-Fast Charge Out of the Box 26:07 Hard Carbon Anode 31:26 High Energy Density Sodium Ion Batteries 38:28 Closing
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said4680 Synthetic Anode Confirmed // What are the implications?The Limiting Factor2024-03-13 | As a result of testing by UC San Diego, I've confirmed the 4680 uses synthetic anode. The question is, what are the implications of that? To answer that question, today I’m going to walk you through the analysis done by UC San Diego, the differences between synthetic and natural graphite anodes, why Tesla may have chosen synthetic graphite, and what that choice could mean for Tesla’s supply chain.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:34 Clarifying Terminology 02:31 Graphite Analysis by UC San Diego // Scanning Electron Microscope Inspection 04:46 Graphite Analysis by UC San Diego // X-Ray Diffraction 07:28 Natural vs Synthetic Anode // Production 08:51 Natural vs Synthetic Anode // Performance and Cost 10:17 Why did Tesla Choose Synthetic? // Some Perspective 11:56 Why did Tesla Choose Synthetic? // Technical and Supply Chain Reasons 19:52 Odds and Ends // Silicon, Talga, Novonix 21:22 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidMagnesium from Seawater // Magrathea’s Mission to go Back to the FutureThe Limiting Factor2024-02-27 | Advancements in Magnesium Alloys and Magnesium Thixomolding will lead to huge increases in Magnesium demand. How will we increase the magnesium supply to meet that demand? In my view, the best way is by extracting magnesium from seawater by going back the future to resurrect Dow and Norsk Hydro's processes - and Magrathea's doing exactly that.
Video #1 on Entering the Magnesium Era - youtu.be/OIv_Rfl0L_A Video #2 on What Thixomolded Magnesium Is - youtu.be/9QRJQW5GdGk Video #3 on Why Thixomolding is Better than Al Gigacasting -
Also, this is the old Dow footage which I thought was excellent:
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 02:59 A Brief History of Magnesium Production 05:25 The Dow Process for Magnesium 08:28 The Pidgeon Process for Magnesium Production 10:41 Dow vs Pidgeon Process 15:01 The Tide is About to Turn 16:56 Magrathea’s Process for Extracting Magnesium from Seawater 21:51 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTesla 4680 Asymmetric Lamination Rumors // Two Cells in One?The Limiting Factor2024-02-14 | There are rumors from Giga Austin that Tesla is trialling the use of Asymmetric Electrode coatings, which in effect creates a high power cell and a high energy cell within the same 4680 battery cell. Today we're going to look at how that works, what it means, and whether it could actually work.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:32 The Rumor 02:05 “More Jelly Roll” 03:54 Asymmetric Lamination // More Energy, More Power 06:52 “10-20% more Energy Density” 09:01 What could go wrong? // Cycle Life 11:46 What could go wrong? // Manufacturing 13:30 Two Battery Cells for the Price of One 17:33 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTesla Q4 Battery Updates // Production Dip and RumorsThe Limiting Factor2024-02-01 | In the Tesla Q4 2023 earnings call, Drew Baglino gave his usual battery updates. Today I'll breakdown what he said line-by-line, discuss why his comments indicate a production dip but his outlook is still positive.
I'll also cover rumors by Joe Tegtmeyer about cathode updates and asymmetric lamination, as well as rumors/reports on Weibo that Tesla is importing wet coated cathode from China.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 00:54 The Reuters Article 03:05 Line 1 Swapped to the Generation 2 Cell 05:08 Production vs Assembly 08:33 Implications for the 4680 Ramp 10:42 Elon Confirms Tesla’s Cell Suppliers 12:38 Joe Tegtmeyer’s Rumor // Cell Improvements 13:48 Weibo Rumor // Cathode Rolls from China 15:16 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidWhy Thixomolded Magnesium is better than Gigacast AluminumThe Limiting Factor2024-01-17 | In this video I'll walk you through why Thixomolded Magnesium is better than Gigacast Aluminum. In short, it's lighter, creates fewer restrictions on casting designs, and it should become increasingly low cost as the decade progress. To round out the video, I'll also walk you though two use cases, underbody castings and wheels, and how much magnesium we can expect to be used in vehicles and when.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:09 Thixomolded Magnesium // Cost 08:57 Thixomolded Magnesium // Design Benefits 13:24 Thixomolded Magnesium // Underbody Castings 17:39 Thixomolded Magnesium // Wheels 22:27 Magnesium’s Push into Automotive 23:21 Why are Analysts so Bullish on Magnesium? The Spider Chart 28:05 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTeslas PDO Patent // One-Upping the Million Mile Battery?The Limiting Factor2024-01-03 | Today we'll be discussing Tesla's 'new' patent and patent application for an new electrolyte additive called PDO that extends the cycle life of lithium ion batteries, the research behind that patent, and how with the PDO additive Jeff Dahn's lab may be one-upping the 'Million Mile Battery' they documented four years ago.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:08 Tesla’s ‘PDO’ Patent 04:47 PDO Research History 07:41 PDO vs The ‘Million Mile Battery’ 11:09 Could PDO Perform Even Better? 12:39 Summary // Where are the Improvements?
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidIdra Enters the Thixomolded Magnesium Game // But What is It?The Limiting Factor2023-12-20 | Idra Group, which pioneered the Gigacasting machines that Tesla uses for their massive underbody castings, is now working on giga scale machines for chip cast magnesium, which is also known as Thixomolded magnesium. The question is, what is that? Today I'll walk you through exactly what it is and how it compares to other casting technologies.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:04 Video Context 01:47 Aluminum Gigacasting vs Magnesium Thixomolding // What’s the Difference? 05:18 Rheocasting vs Thixomolding 08:21 Why did Idra Pursue Thixomolding instead of Rheocasting? 09:36 Thixomolded Magnesium vs Gigacast Magnesium 11:22 Thixomolding // Quality 12:51 Thixomolding // Speed 13:31 Thixomolding // Size 15:12 The Limiting Factor for Thixomolded Part Size 16:51 Why Not Thixomolded Aluminum? 19:17 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidPart 1 I How Grid Storage Duration is Assessed and Why it MattersThe Limiting Factor2023-12-06 | Grid storage manufacturers often list a duration on their technology that can be anywhere from seconds to hours to seasons. What exactly does that mean? Today I'll walk you through how grid storage is assessed and why it matters.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:45 Why Can’t 1-hour Storage Just be Stacked? 02:49 How Duration is Defined Technically 04:52 Why Does Duration Matter? 08:28 Specific Power and Energy Cost 09:48 Total Cost Investment Cost Calculation 10:28 Average Power and Energy Cost 11:50 Power and Energy Cost Graphed 13:58 Summary 15:42 Duration in Marketing // Two Examples
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTesla Q3 Earnings // Battery Updates // Full Breakdown and ImplicationsThe Limiting Factor2023-11-08 | In the Tesla Q3 2023 earnings call, Drew Baglino made a statement about the 4680 production ramp that contained a lot of new information. Today I’m going to break down what he said line-by-line, what the implications are for the 4680 ramp, and what the impact could be on Tesla’s Cost of Goods sold.
In short, after 3 years of waiting, it appears 4680 cell production is finally poised to deliver on the exponential growth and cell cost reductions that were teased at Battery Day.
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*Timestamps* 00:00 Introduction 01:00 4680 Production Growth Rate 02:05 Texas is now the Home of the 4680 02:41 4680 Quality Control and Cost 04:41 4680 Production Starts on Line 2 in Texas 05:48 Converting to 100% Cybertruck Cells 10:53 Phase 2 Expansion Plans 11:48 4680 Capacity Plans for all Locations 13:32 Kato Road Skunkworks 16:32 4680 Ramp // Plans vs Reality 18:23 Projecting the 4680 Production Ramp 18:59 Will the 21% Month over Month Improvement Rate Continue? 21:03 Phase 2 Aligns with my Projections 22:42 Where will the Cells be Used? 25:19 How Much will the 4680 Reduce Vehicle Cost of Goods Sold? 28:29 Closing Thoughts
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidThe Global Lithium Supply Chain and Tesla’s 50% Growth Rate I ~3 Month ProjectThe Limiting Factor2023-10-25 | How will the Global Lithium Supply Chain evolve this decade and how will that affect Tesla’s 50% Growth Rate target? I've spent the last 3 months investigating the topic and assembling this video to give you a comprehensive view.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 02:11 Too Long; Didn’t Watch 05:53 Thanks, Credits, and Sources 09:15 Why is Lithium the Bottleneck? 10:48 Mining is Easy, Refining is Hard? A Red Herring 11:52 Lithium Refining // Margins 20:17 Fixed Price Contracts are being Phased Out 22:28 Lithium Refining // Forecast and Lead Times 25:17 Why is Tesla Pushing for More Refining? 29:27 Tesla Needs to Flirt Better with Entrepreneurs 30:04 Refining Integration could Save Tesla Billions 31:50 Lithium Refining // Interim Summary 32:29 Is there Enough Lithium in the Ground? 35:34 Let’s Evaluate Three Lithium Forecasts… 42:46 Benchmark’s Forecast // Revisions Explained 45:12 Lithium Supply in 2030 // Bull and Bear Cases 46:35 A Recent History of Lithium Supply and Demand 50:29 Australia / 2-3 Years // Brownfields Projects 51:40 Australia / 2-3 Years // Faster Extraction Rate 56:56 Australia / 2-3 Years // Two Non-Starters 58:00 Australia / 4-7 Years // Greenfields Projects 01:03:57 South American Lithium Brines 01:05:36 China // Lepidolites to the Rescue? 01:09:06 United States // Lithium Clays and Brines 01:11:11 The Potential of Direct Lithium Extraction 01:13:15 Africa // A Wild Card with Huge Potential 01:17:10 Canada // Hard Rock and Lithium Brines 01:17:58 Other Countries 01:18:32 Global Lithium Supply Forecast 01:23:32 The Forecast for Sodium Ion Batteries 01:27:35 Combining the Li & Na Battery Forecasts 01:29:57 When will Tesla Face a Battery Shortage? 01:34:47 OEM Li Bonanza // Is Tesla Getting Left Behind? 01:35:36 Why Tesla Should Get into Li Mining & Refining 01:37:54 Three Ways for Tesla to “Get into Li Mining” 01:38:50 Why is Tesla Avoiding Lithium Mining? 01:40:59 What about other Chemistries? 01:41:57 Video Summary // 10 Key Points 01:48:57 The Lithium Bottleneck vs ‘Peak Oil’ Comparison
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTeslas Coming Lithium Crunch // How Long Can Tesla Continue Growing Battery Consumption @ 50% CAGR?The Limiting Factor2023-10-11 | This is the final video of the Global Lithium Supply Chain video where I attempt to answer the question: How long can Tesla continue growing battery cell consumption @ 50% per year?
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00:00 Introduction 00:37 Thanks, Credits, and Sources 04:07 When will Tesla Face a Battery Shortage? 09:00 OEM Li Bonanza // Is Tesla Getting Left Behind? 09:49 Why Tesla Should Get into Li Mining & Refining 12:07 Three Ways for Tesla to “Get into Li Mining” 13:03 Why is Tesla Avoiding Lithium Mining? 15:03 What about other Chemistries? 16:02 Next Video 16:45 Credits
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidHow LMFP and Sodium Ion Batteries will Change the Battery Market // 2023, 2025, and 2030The Limiting Factor2023-09-27 | New information has recently been posted on X for LMFP and Sodium Ion battery chemistries. Today we'll use that information to develop roadmaps for every major battery chemistry including LMFP, two Sodium Ion chemistries, LFP, and high nickel . From there, we'll look at how the the battery market will evolve from 2023 to 2025 to 2030.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:20 BYD Slides on Sodium Ion 06:20 Sodium Ion Roadmap 10:58 Soochow Slides on LMFP 17:00 LMFP Roadmap 19:22 LFP Roadmap 24:20 High Nickel Roadmap 28:41 2023 Comparison Table & Market Analysis 29:58 2025 Comparison Table & Market Analysis 32:06 2030 Comparison Table & Market Analysis 34:31 Loose End 1 // This Assumes Everything Goes Well 34:45 Loose End 2 // Average Cost vs Tesla 35:59 Loose End 3 // Tesla’s Plans for Other Chemistries 36:49 Closing
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidGlobal Battery Supply Forecast to 2030 // Lithium & Sodium Ion // Part 4The Limiting Factor2023-09-13 | Before we can understand Tesla's battery supply, we first need a forecast in hand for total global battery supply to 2030 that includes both lithium and sodium ion batteries. Today, I'll walk you through that forecast, along with the caveats, and in the next video we'll look at what all that means for Tesla.
This is Part 4 of the global lithium supply chain video.
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00:00 Introduction 01:02 Thanks, Credits, and Sources 04:33 Global Lithium Supply Forecast 09:30 The Forecast for Sodium Ion Batteries 13:33 Combining the Li & Na Battery Forecasts 15:55 Closing Credits
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidCATL M3P // Is the Hype Legit & Will Tesla Use it?The Limiting Factor2023-08-30 | CATL M3P has generated a lot of hype, noise, and confusion over the past year. Is the hype legit and will Tesla soon be using it for the Model 3?
Today I'll try to create some clarity around M3P in terms of energy density, cycle life, and cost... as well what vehicles it could be used in and when that might happen.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:18 M3P // What is it? 05:44 M3P // Cycle Life 08:26 M3P // Cost 12:32 Specs // Quick Recap 13:29 Extra Cells Aren’t Free! 14:17 The Hidden Benefit of Voltage 15:12 Lithium Usage and Price Spikes 15:58 Can M3P Replace Nickel? 17:51 When Could Tesla Start Using M3P? 18:55 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidLithium Supply by Country: Where are the Opportunities? // Part 3The Limiting Factor2023-08-16 | If lithium forecasts are conservative and don't account for potential new supply, where are the opportunities for growing the lithium supply by country throughout the rest of the decade?
This is Part 3 of the global lithium supply chain video.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:22 Credits and Thanks 04:53 A Recent History of Lithium Supply and Demand 08:44 Australia / 2-3 Years // Brownfields Projects 09:55 Australia / 2-3 Years // Faster Extraction Rate 15:11 Australia / 2-3 Years // Two Non-Starters 16:15 Australia / 4-7 Years // Greenfields Projects 22:13 South American Lithium Brines 23:51 China // Lepidolites to the Rescue? 27:22 United States // Lithium Clays and Brines 29:26 The Potential of Direct Lithium Extraction 31:31 Africa // A Wild Card with Huge Potential 35:25 Canada // Hard Rock and Lithium Brines 36:14 Other Countries 36:48 Next Video, Shake the Money Tree, Credits
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTesla Q2 Earnings // 4680 Updates & Emerging Revenue StreamsThe Limiting Factor2023-08-02 | The Tesla Q2 2023 Earnings call was one of the more bullish earnings calls of the past few years. We received updates on 4680 progress & Tesla's emerging revenue streams.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:00 Robotaxis, Dojo, Superchargers, Megapacks, Optimus 07:31 Factory Shutdowns // M3P Battery Packs? 08:37 Drew’s Comments on the 4680 14:29 4680 and 2170 Cells Compared 16:00 Thoughts on Tesla’s Progress 16:37 Gen 2 Cell Implications for Tesla’s Vehicles 21:32 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidAre Global Lithium Supply Forecasts Accurate? // Part 2The Limiting Factor2023-07-18 | There appears to be plenty of lithium in the ground, yet supply forecasts say lithium will come up short. So, are global lithium supply forecasts accurate or is it a case of understanding the assumptions so we can form our own conclusions?
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:31 Thanks, Credits, and Sources 05:03 Is there Enough Lithium in the Ground? 07:56 Let’s Evaluate Three Lithium Forecasts… 15:07 Benchmark’s Forecast // Revisions Explained 17:34 Lithium Supply in 2030 // Bull and Bear Cases
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidWill Refining be the Bottleneck for Lithium Supply? // Part 1The Limiting Factor2023-07-08 | In this video, I'll address Elon's comment that lithium refining will be the bottleneck for lithium lithium supply, as well as look at margins and the benefits of vertically integrating into lithium refining.
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*Timeline* 0:00 Introduction 01:16 Thanks, Credits, and Sources 04:37 Why is Lithium the Bottleneck? 06:10 Mining is Easy, Refining is Hard? A Red Herring 07:14 Lithium Refining // Margins 15:39 Fixed Price Contracts are being Phased Out 17:50 Lithium Refining // Forecast and Lead Times 20:39 Why is Tesla Pushing for More Refining? 24:49 Tesla Needs to Flirt Better with Entrepeneurs 25:26 Refining Integration could Save Tesla Billions 27:12 Lithium Refining // Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidNio Battery Pack Swapping // Everything You Need to KnowThe Limiting Factor2023-06-14 | Today I'm going to walk you through everything you need to know about Nio Battery Pack swapping. Everything from cost to some surprising drawbacks that I haven't seen discussed elsewhere.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:16 Why Nio? 01:41 Customer Facing Costs: Renting vs Owning the Pack 07:10 Customer Facing Costs: Swapping vs Charging 10:41 Throughput Swapping vs Charging 14:31 Swapping Stations: Drawback 1 // Single Point of Failure 15:19 Swapping Stations: Drawback 2 // Pack Inventory 20:31 Swapping Stations: Drawback 3 // Cost 22:42 Owning a Battery Pack: Drawback 1 // Speed 23:15 Owning a Battery Pack: Drawback 2 // Repair Costs 24:40 Owning a Battery Pack: Drawback 3 // Fixed Range 25:07 Owning a Battery Pack: Drawback 4 // Degradation? 28:27 Wasted Batteries? 29:52 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidDry Electrode Lithium Doping Process // New Tesla PatentThe Limiting Factor2023-05-24 | Today I'm going to walk you through a 'new' Tesla patent application for Tesla's dry electrode lithium doping proces. In my view, conceptually, it's the most commercially viable lithium doping process out there.
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*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:06 Patent History and Background 03:22 First Cycle Losses and Lithium Doping 06:16 Wet Slurry Li Doping Challenges 07:14 Direct Contact Lithium Doping 09:40 Tesla Lithium Doping Process 17:41 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTeslas Rare Earth Free Motor // Niron Iron Nitride or Ferrite Magnets?The Limiting Factor2023-05-10 | At Investor Day, Tesla teased a rare earth free motor. This has led to spculation about Tesla partnering with Niron for their Iron Nitride material. However, I think think humble ferrite magnets may actually be a better option. Let me know what you think in the comments below.
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*Timeline* 0:00 Introduction 01:00 What is a Rare Earth? 02:20 Why Remove Rare Earths? 03:09 Why did Tesla Use Rare Earths? 05:24 Niron Iron Nitride Magnets 11:42 'Tesla' Magnets 14:20 Tesla Ferrite Motor 23:45 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTesla Q1 2023 Earnings Call // Storage, 4680 Production, Lithium CostThe Limiting Factor2023-04-26 | Tesla's Q1 2023 earnings call from a battery perspective! The major topics this time around were grid storage, the progress of 4680 production, and the state of the lithium market.
*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 00:44 Grid Storage and Master Plan Part 3 05:40 4680 Progress - Drew's Answer Part I 06:44 Battery Day Expectations 07:49 Cell Design and Cell Factory 09:00 Anode Material 09:54 4680 Progress - Drew's Answer Part II 11:16 Lithium & Cathode Material 13:50 Dry & Wet Commissioning 14:52 4680 Progress - Drew's Answer Part III 15:35 Cell-to-Vehicle Integration 16:21 4680 Progress - Drew's Answer Part IV 16:55 Production Yields and Rates 18:39 CT Ramp & 1000 Pack/wk/qtr Goal 20:51 4680 Model Y - Take the Win 21:25 4680 Progress - Drew's Answer Part V 21:50 CT Cost Targets & Interim Summary 22:59 Lithium Cost 26:05 Quick Summary and Next Video Tease
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidSodium Ion Batteries for Vehicles // AnalysisThe Limiting Factor2023-04-12 | Are sodium ion batteries a viable chemistry for vehicles? Yes, but there are some catches. Today I'll run you through my analysis.
00:00 Introduction 01:15 Sodium Ion for Vehicles vs Grid Storage 03:44 Sehol E10X // Why Ultra-Compact? 05:07 BYD Seagull Example // Na vs LFP and Cost 07:30 Range of Model 3 with Sodium Ion 11:16 Sodium Ion for the ‘Robotaxi’ 15:48 Sodium Ion // Projecting Market Share 18:54 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidCliff’s Notes for Investor Day // Context, Insights, ImplicationsThe Limiting Factor2023-03-29 | There was so much packed into investor day that it needs Cliff's Notes. This video re-frame's investor in terms of themes and provides context, insights, and discusses the implications.
*Timeline* 00:00 Intro 00:59 Investor Day Themes 02:49 Why Hope Matters 04:22 It's All About Raw Materials 07:33 The Spice Must Flow 11:05 The End of Legacy Auto 13:50 Technical Domination 15:16 Tesla Culture 16:45 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTesla Investor Day // Cheap Complaints and Valid CriticismsThe Limiting Factor2023-03-15 | There were a lot of cheap complaints and also some valid criticisms about Tesla Investor Day. Did people overbuild their own expecations and blame Tesla? Did Wall Street Really hate the event? Today I'll walk you through my thoughts.
*Timeline* 0:00 Introduction 00:58 No New Vehicle 01:54 Stock Price Drop 03:08 Wall Street Criticisms 08:43 Disjointed 10:51 Boring and Poorly Presented 11:51 Not Enough Talk about Raw Materials
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidInvestor Day Livestream // The Limiting FactorThe Limiting Factor2023-03-02 | The big day is finally here! Hang out with me during the Investor Day Livestream.
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTesla Master Plan 3 + Investor Day // What to Expect ⛏🔋The Limiting Factor2023-02-24 | Today I'll walk you through what to expect from Tesla Master Plan Part 3 + Investor Day.
*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 00:32 What Elon's Said 03:14 Elon's Brain 04:07 A Philosophy of Urgency 05:30 Master Plan Part 3 Scope 07:39 Primary Focus is Raw Tonnage 09:16 Boring Company & SpaceX 10:09 Tesla's Role in Master Plan 3 13:06 Master Plan 3 Key Points 16:13 Investor Day Topics 17:40 Generation 3 Platform 10:56 Other Subjects 21:46 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTesla Semi: Competitive Landscape // Interview with Johnny NijenhuisThe Limiting Factor2023-02-21 | Today I discuss the competitive landscape of the Tesla Semi with Johnny Nijenhuis. In short, Tesla has a massive first mover advantage, Semis will transition to electric faster than cars, and those who don't make the switch will get left behind.
*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 00:45 What Johnny Does 02:55 Semi Price 06:56 Semi Cost 09:39 Battery vs Fuel Cells 12:19 Factoring in Subsidies 14:20 Legacy Batterization Plans 17:17 Transition for Semis will be Rapid 18:32 Cab Design 24:52 Competition? 26:42 European Tesla Semi 28:49 Power is Braking Power 30:53 Jack-Knifing 33:01 Bring Johnny to America! 33:37 Logistics Companies MUST go Electric
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidThe Tesla Semi: Why Now? // The Road to Commercial ViabilityThe Limiting Factor2023-02-19 | Today I'll be covering why the Tesla Semi was released now, the road to commercial viability, and why there were delays from 2019 to 2022. In short, there were a series of limiting factors that the Tesla had to break through to reach commerically viability.
*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 00:59 Powertrain Efficiency 02:58 Energy Density 04:21 Why Tesla Blew the 2019 Delivery Guidance 06:27 The Original Master Plan 08:24 Charging Infrastructure 11:26 Summary // Why Now and What’s Next?
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTesla Q4 Earnings // The Path to 3 TWh // Full Battery UpdateThe Limiting Factor2023-02-08 | This video will cover the Tesla Q4 earnings call with other new information to provide a full update on the path to 3 TWhs for Tesla that includes 4680 production, scaling plans, and tax credits.
*Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 00:42 Demand Problem? 02:45 3 TWh by 2030? 07:16 4680 Production Mysteries 12:36 Conservative Guidance for C/T 13:40 Cell Supply for 2023 16:23 300 GWh Production Ramps 18:12 Tax Credits for 2023 21:45 Fully Funded Cell Factories 23:43 Lithium Prices 24:48 Where Will All the Cells Go? 26:29 What I Expect from Investor Day 27:02 Increasing Energy Density 27:41 Nevada Vertical Integration 28:28 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidHow the Tesla Semi “Broke the Laws of Physics”The Limiting Factor2023-01-23 | When Tesla unveiled their Semi 5 years ago, auto industry was skeptical to say the least. As Daimler put it, Tesla must be defying the laws of physics.
In this video we'll look at how the Tesla Semi "Broke the Laws of Physics"
*Timeline* 00:00 Intro 01:09 Drag Coefficient 02:05 Powertrain 03:31 Tesla’s 20% Advantage 04:36 The Plaid Motor 06:56 The Limiting Factor for Regen 10:53 1000 Volt Triangle 11:49 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidSemi Megacharger Output // + The Megapack MoatThe Limiting Factor2023-01-11 | Today I get into the power will the Tesla semi will require from the Megacharger and why I could be wrong. I also cover the grid scale implications for the megacharger, how the megapack fits in, and what this does the competitive moat of Tesla's charging network.
*Timeline* 00:00 Intro 00:51 Megacharger Power Output 08:01 Megacharger Extreme Power Requirements 10:38 Megapack Bring in the Cavalry 11:40 Megapack Moat 12:49 Grid Opportunities 13:32 Summary
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer SaidTesla V4 Supercharger // Megawatt Charging for the MassesThe Limiting Factor2022-12-28 | Is the Tesla V4 Supercharger Megawatt Charging for the Masses? I think so, and this video I'll explain the technology involved and why the Megacharger may be a separate product.
00:00 Intro 01:16 On Board Charging vs DC Fast Charge 02:42 Supercharger Version History 04:03 Why a Megacharger AND V4 Supercharger 09:16 1 MWh+ // Back of the Napkin Math 11:26 V4 Supercharger // Engineering for 5x Power 17:56 The Limiting Factors for Charge Rate 19:08 V4 Impact on Current Line-Up 20:05 V4 is for the LR Cybertruck // Min 500 kW Required 21:39 Elon’s 300kW Comment 22:14 Summary