Uploaded January 2026 | Updated September 2026, 3 weeks ago
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Iran is in crisis. The largest protests in years have brought millions into the streets, and sparked a brutal crackdown by the regime. More than 12,000 people are reported to have been killed.
To understand what triggered the protests and why they matter so profoundly, I sat down with historian and Free Press contributor Niall Ferguson.
Niall and I discussed the Islamic Republic’s crisis of legitimacy. Unlike earlier protest movements, this one features explicit calls for regime change and, in some cases, even the restoration of the monarchy. The protesters’ chants of “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon” make clear that these demonstrations are not simply pro-Western, as the regime claims, but are nationalist—they are demands that Iranian resources serve Iranian citizens rather than be spent on Hamas and Hezbollah.
Niall gave me his thoughts on the dilemma facing President Trump, who has alternated between threatening action against the regime and signaling a desire to avoid military intervention. We revisit the lessons of 1953, 1979, Iraq, Syria, and the Arab Spring, and consider whether U.S. intervention would help Iran’s protesters or risk discrediting them. Niall argues that inaction also carries costs, and contends that the collapse of the Islamic Republic would fundamentally reshape the Middle East, with implications stretching from Israel and Saudi Arabia to China, Russia, and Taiwan.
0:00- Intro
1:19- Framing the Current Crisis
5:26- Economic Collapse and the Roots of Protest
10:53- Regime Legitimacy Versus Cost-of-Living Grievances
15:17- Trump’s Risk Tolerance and U.S. Leverage
20:01- Reassessing the 1953 Coup Narrative
27:07- Foreign Policy Failures and Public Anger
31:15- Foreign Involvement and Protest Legitimacy
36:49- Is Iran Comparable to Iraq?
43:21- America First and the Limits of Nonintervention
50:03- Saudi Arabia, Israel, and regional shifts
55:55- Russia, China, and the Taiwan shadow
Think for yourself. Subscribe to The Free Press today: https://thefp.pub/3DmLpLi
Iran is in crisis. The largest protests in years have brought millions into the streets, and sparked a brutal crackdown by the regime. More than 12,000 people are reported to have been killed.
To understand what triggered the protests and why they matter so profoundly, I sat down with historian and Free Press contributor Niall Ferguson.
Niall and I discussed the Islamic Republic’s crisis of legitimacy. Unlike earlier protest movements, this one features explicit calls for regime change and, in some cases, even the restoration of the monarchy. The protesters’ chants of “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon” make clear that these demonstrations are not simply pro-Western, as the regime claims, but are nationalist—they are demands that Iranian resources serve Iranian citizens rather than be spent on Hamas and Hezbollah.
Niall gave me his thoughts on the dilemma facing President Trump, who has alternated between threatening action against the regime and signaling a desire to avoid military intervention. We revisit the lessons of 1953, 1979, Iraq, Syria, and the Arab Spring, and consider whether U.S. intervention would help Iran’s protesters or risk discrediting them. Niall argues that inaction also carries costs, and contends that the collapse of the Islamic Republic would fundamentally reshape the Middle East, with implications stretching from Israel and Saudi Arabia to China, Russia, and Taiwan.
0:00- Intro
1:19- Framing the Current Crisis
5:26- Economic Collapse and the Roots of Protest
10:53- Regime Legitimacy Versus Cost-of-Living Grievances
15:17- Trump’s Risk Tolerance and U.S. Leverage
20:01- Reassessing the 1953 Coup Narrative
27:07- Foreign Policy Failures and Public Anger
31:15- Foreign Involvement and Protest Legitimacy
36:49- Is Iran Comparable to Iraq?
43:21- America First and the Limits of Nonintervention
50:03- Saudi Arabia, Israel, and regional shifts
55:55- Russia, China, and the Taiwan shadow
