Uploaded April 2022 | Updated September 2026, 2 hours ago
This week I look at the advantage of being on the play. Why do we win more when on the play, why starting gives you the advantage in later game and how does this advantage look like depending on the game length. Choosing to be on the play is a good heuristic, but I also look at when would it be theoretically good to choose to go second. And try to use 17Lands data to find decks that would, at least in theory, be better off going second. What types of cards are leading to those types of deck? What is the density of those types of cards that would prompt you to go second? In the end I show a simple model that lets you decide exactly that. Still in majority of cases you should chose to go first, but roughly 13% of decks are at least as good on the draw as on the play. In Best-of-3 this means you can get an extra edge as your opponent would typically choose to be on the play. This means you will always end up starting the game in a privileged position. I also look at the specific analysis of Azusa's Many Journeys, the card that inspired me to do this analysis.
This week I look at the advantage of being on the play. Why do we win more when on the play, why starting gives you the advantage in later game and how does this advantage look like depending on the game length. Choosing to be on the play is a good heuristic, but I also look at when would it be theoretically good to choose to go second. And try to use 17Lands data to find decks that would, at least in theory, be better off going second. What types of cards are leading to those types of deck? What is the density of those types of cards that would prompt you to go second? In the end I show a simple model that lets you decide exactly that. Still in majority of cases you should chose to go first, but roughly 13% of decks are at least as good on the draw as on the play. In Best-of-3 this means you can get an extra edge as your opponent would typically choose to be on the play. This means you will always end up starting the game in a privileged position. I also look at the specific analysis of Azusa's Many Journeys, the card that inspired me to do this analysis.
