Magic Numbers #27: Marrying your first pick @Sierkovitz
Magic Numbers #27: Marrying your first pick  @Sierkovitz
Uploaded March 2022 | Updated September 2026, 1 hour ago
Today I will be looking at differences between how late you will see cards in Pack 1 and Pack 3 of the draft. We will look at the 17Lands ALSA measure to find those differences. What is ALSA you might ask? Well I will describe it in detail and even visualise it. Looking at differences between P1 and P3 may seem unnecessarily deep, but there are big differences between how we draft pack 1 and pack 3 and knowing how it works could give you a nice edge. Which cards are almost ungettable in P1 but will travel further in P3? Which cards are relatively easy to get in P1 but get trickier to get in P3? I also look at the impact of playing your first pick. Do you get a boost from playing it or not? Spoiler: the boost is tiny, which means that all the advantages of sticking to your first pick are eaten by the drawbacks of forcing the 1st pick when you should pivot. I will also look at the anatomy of draft decks. Do trophy decks differ from others in terms of playing the first picks? Maybe they play more later picks? Well, only one way to find out.
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Magic Numbers #27: Marrying your first pick

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