Uploaded December 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Europe’s security map is being rewritten from the sea. In this keynote delivered at the Maritime Energy Security Conference in Istanbul, Maciej F. Bukowski explains how the Baltic and Black Sea basins have become the core of Europe’s strategic vulnerability and resilience. Drawing on new evidence and frontline lessons, he maps five critical shifts now shaping the continent’s future.
* How the Baltic and Black Sea have become Europe’s primary energy arteries, carrying pipelines, cables and LNG routes that sustain half the continent
* Why hybrid threats in both basins are accelerating faster than deterrence, from underwater intrusions to cyber enabled pressure on ports and terminals
* How drone warfare has fused sea and air into one battlespace, with Ukraine redefining maritime conflict through rapid, asymmetric innovation
* Why Europe’s subsea and coastal infrastructure is expanding faster than its protection systems can adapt
* How Poland, Türkiye and Ukraine can anchor a new regional security system built on shared intelligence, joint infrastructure protection and faster technology adoption
Maciej argued that resilience has become a pillar of deterrence, that public and private actors must coordinate far more closely, and that the Baltic–Black Sea continuum will shape Europe’s energy stability and strategic choices for decades. It also highlights that this moment creates a rare opportunity to rekindle a modern, pragmatic version of the Intermarium: the emerging zone between the Baltic and the Black Sea that now forms Europe’s principal line of resistance to Russian pressure. Countering Russia’s hybrid and kinetic activity across both seas would allow the region to stabilise its maritime flanks, free up strategic bandwidth on land and integrate Ukraine more fully into a shared security ecosystem that links innovation, infrastructure protection and collective resilience. If maritime security, energy resilience and the future of European defence matter to you, this is the essential framework for understanding the pressures and opportunities emerging between the two seas.
Europe’s security map is being rewritten from the sea. In this keynote delivered at the Maritime Energy Security Conference in Istanbul, Maciej F. Bukowski explains how the Baltic and Black Sea basins have become the core of Europe’s strategic vulnerability and resilience. Drawing on new evidence and frontline lessons, he maps five critical shifts now shaping the continent’s future.
* How the Baltic and Black Sea have become Europe’s primary energy arteries, carrying pipelines, cables and LNG routes that sustain half the continent
* Why hybrid threats in both basins are accelerating faster than deterrence, from underwater intrusions to cyber enabled pressure on ports and terminals
* How drone warfare has fused sea and air into one battlespace, with Ukraine redefining maritime conflict through rapid, asymmetric innovation
* Why Europe’s subsea and coastal infrastructure is expanding faster than its protection systems can adapt
* How Poland, Türkiye and Ukraine can anchor a new regional security system built on shared intelligence, joint infrastructure protection and faster technology adoption
Maciej argued that resilience has become a pillar of deterrence, that public and private actors must coordinate far more closely, and that the Baltic–Black Sea continuum will shape Europe’s energy stability and strategic choices for decades. It also highlights that this moment creates a rare opportunity to rekindle a modern, pragmatic version of the Intermarium: the emerging zone between the Baltic and the Black Sea that now forms Europe’s principal line of resistance to Russian pressure. Countering Russia’s hybrid and kinetic activity across both seas would allow the region to stabilise its maritime flanks, free up strategic bandwidth on land and integrate Ukraine more fully into a shared security ecosystem that links innovation, infrastructure protection and collective resilience. If maritime security, energy resilience and the future of European defence matter to you, this is the essential framework for understanding the pressures and opportunities emerging between the two seas.
