Uploaded July 2026 | Updated September 2026, 1 week ago
The original season 2 episodes of The Axios Show were lightly edited for brevity, and many viewers asked us to post the full interviews. This is Kalshi co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara’s complete conversation with Axios, recorded on April 6.
The full conversation was originally published on Axios.com. Watch it here: axios.com/2026/04/09/axios-show-kalshi-extended-interview
In this interview, Mansour and Lopes Lara discuss the rise of prediction markets, why they argue Kalshi is different from gambling, the company’s legal battles with states, sports contracts, political markets, insider trading concerns, consumer protection, Polymarket and the future of betting on real-world events.
Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:04 - Why America needs prediction markets
1:46 - How Kalshi works
2:56 - Why they say Kalshi is not gambling
3:44 - Sports betting and the “loophole” question
4:28 - Kalshi’s federal license
6:15 - State lawsuits and New Jersey
8:22 - Nevada and the “walks like a duck” argument
9:20 - How Kalshi says it differs from sportsbooks
11:05 - Consumer protections and user losses
13:22 - Trump, Don Jr. and prediction markets
16:06 - Prediction markets and distrust in institutions
16:44 - What Democratic control of Congress could mean for Kalshi
17:51 - Banned markets and CFTC approvals
19:59 - Why sports dominate Kalshi volume
22:46 - Who uses Kalshi
23:47 - Prediction markets vs. polling
26:15 - Superforecasters and “truth seeking”
26:54 - Insider trading concerns
28:20 - How Kalshi monitors 16,000 contracts
30:32 - Blocking risky users from certain markets
31:09 - CFTC enforcement and insider trading
32:42 - Betting addiction
34:50 - Fees and Kalshi’s business incentives
37:08 - Polymarket rivalry
38:43 - Offshore markets and Iran-related contracts
40:10 - Favorite Kalshi contracts
41:05 - AI doomsday markets
42:03 - Tech layoffs and the future of work
42:29 - Closing
The original season 2 episodes of The Axios Show were lightly edited for brevity, and many viewers asked us to post the full interviews. This is Kalshi co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara’s complete conversation with Axios, recorded on April 6.
The full conversation was originally published on Axios.com. Watch it here: axios.com/2026/04/09/axios-show-kalshi-extended-interview
In this interview, Mansour and Lopes Lara discuss the rise of prediction markets, why they argue Kalshi is different from gambling, the company’s legal battles with states, sports contracts, political markets, insider trading concerns, consumer protection, Polymarket and the future of betting on real-world events.
Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:04 - Why America needs prediction markets
1:46 - How Kalshi works
2:56 - Why they say Kalshi is not gambling
3:44 - Sports betting and the “loophole” question
4:28 - Kalshi’s federal license
6:15 - State lawsuits and New Jersey
8:22 - Nevada and the “walks like a duck” argument
9:20 - How Kalshi says it differs from sportsbooks
11:05 - Consumer protections and user losses
13:22 - Trump, Don Jr. and prediction markets
16:06 - Prediction markets and distrust in institutions
16:44 - What Democratic control of Congress could mean for Kalshi
17:51 - Banned markets and CFTC approvals
19:59 - Why sports dominate Kalshi volume
22:46 - Who uses Kalshi
23:47 - Prediction markets vs. polling
26:15 - Superforecasters and “truth seeking”
26:54 - Insider trading concerns
28:20 - How Kalshi monitors 16,000 contracts
30:32 - Blocking risky users from certain markets
31:09 - CFTC enforcement and insider trading
32:42 - Betting addiction
34:50 - Fees and Kalshi’s business incentives
37:08 - Polymarket rivalry
38:43 - Offshore markets and Iran-related contracts
40:10 - Favorite Kalshi contracts
41:05 - AI doomsday markets
42:03 - Tech layoffs and the future of work
42:29 - Closing
