Uploaded September 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 days ago
Jason Calcanis of the All in Pod predicted Tesla will land 40% of the future robotaxi market, Uber 40%, Waymo 15%, and everyone else splits the remaining 5%. We go through the actual supply chain, unit economics, and hardware numbers and show why we think that split is way off — and why Tesla likely ends up capturing 99-100% of the market instead. A whiteboard walkthrough of each of companies and the whole industry.
Waymo's lidar supply chain bottleneck (they're converting under 10 vehicles/day), Uber's dependence on lidar-based partners for its robotaxi hedge, Tesla's 6 million Hardware 4 vehicles already deployed and robotaxi-ready, and why a single FSD software update changes everything overnight.
In this video:
0:00 Why we think Jason's 40/40/15 split is wrong
0:39 Waymo's fleet: ~4,000 vehicles and the factory bottleneck
1:51 The robotaxi-grade lidar shortage nobody's pricing in
9:15 Global lidar supply tally: ~10,000 vehicles worldwide
11:07 Uber's real margins: why only $5 of your $25 ride goes to Uber
12:37 Uber's $10B bet across 20 AV partners — and why it's still lidar-dependent
14:50 Uber's Plan B: buying Cybercabs directly from Tesla
16:14 Tesla's fleet: 6M Hardware 4 cars ready for a software flip
19:29 FSD v15 rollout timeline and the TAM math
22:38 Why we think it's 99-100% Tesla, not a three-way split
23:52 The charging network Tesla still needs to build to support scale
26:02 Uber and Waymo's unit economics problem at scale
We're not saying Jason's completely off base — Waymo, Uber, and the Chinese AV companies are real businesses with real deployments. Where we disagree is the scale math, timing, ramping, business models, the factories, the lidar supply chain, and the unit economics all point toward Tesla pulling away, not a three-way split.
What's your read — does Waymo's lidar bottleneck actually cap them the way we think, or is there a scaling path we're missing? Drop it in the comments.
Substack: AI datacenter + Tesla/SpaceX buildout — physical stack → dollars. nextbigfuture.substack.com
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Jason Calcanis of the All in Pod predicted Tesla will land 40% of the future robotaxi market, Uber 40%, Waymo 15%, and everyone else splits the remaining 5%. We go through the actual supply chain, unit economics, and hardware numbers and show why we think that split is way off — and why Tesla likely ends up capturing 99-100% of the market instead. A whiteboard walkthrough of each of companies and the whole industry.
Waymo's lidar supply chain bottleneck (they're converting under 10 vehicles/day), Uber's dependence on lidar-based partners for its robotaxi hedge, Tesla's 6 million Hardware 4 vehicles already deployed and robotaxi-ready, and why a single FSD software update changes everything overnight.
In this video:
0:00 Why we think Jason's 40/40/15 split is wrong
0:39 Waymo's fleet: ~4,000 vehicles and the factory bottleneck
1:51 The robotaxi-grade lidar shortage nobody's pricing in
9:15 Global lidar supply tally: ~10,000 vehicles worldwide
11:07 Uber's real margins: why only $5 of your $25 ride goes to Uber
12:37 Uber's $10B bet across 20 AV partners — and why it's still lidar-dependent
14:50 Uber's Plan B: buying Cybercabs directly from Tesla
16:14 Tesla's fleet: 6M Hardware 4 cars ready for a software flip
19:29 FSD v15 rollout timeline and the TAM math
22:38 Why we think it's 99-100% Tesla, not a three-way split
23:52 The charging network Tesla still needs to build to support scale
26:02 Uber and Waymo's unit economics problem at scale
We're not saying Jason's completely off base — Waymo, Uber, and the Chinese AV companies are real businesses with real deployments. Where we disagree is the scale math, timing, ramping, business models, the factories, the lidar supply chain, and the unit economics all point toward Tesla pulling away, not a three-way split.
What's your read — does Waymo's lidar bottleneck actually cap them the way we think, or is there a scaling path we're missing? Drop it in the comments.
Substack: AI datacenter + Tesla/SpaceX buildout — physical stack → dollars. nextbigfuture.substack.com
Follow Brian Wang on NextBigFuture.com
Follow Brian Wang on X.com/@NextBigFuture
Patreon - Next Big Future
This channel brings you the most important science and technology breakthroughs and analysis at least once per week.
