Uploaded August 2025 | Updated September 2026, 1 week ago
In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL researcher Demian Schatt to break down a major macro signal flashing caution across markets: a sudden spike in the MOVE Index, the bond market’s volatility gauge. He explains why the recent Treasury refunding announcement is pushing rollover risk higher, and what that means for liquidity, credit creation, and risk assets like Bitcoin. Nik also explores the current strength in the dollar, the potential for higher volatility in duration, and whether the multi-month trend of rising liquidity is starting to reverse.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
🔓 The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today.
Visit unchained.com/tbl and use the code TBL10 for a 10% credit towards your first year's account fees.
📡 Blockstream delivers cutting-edge Bitcoin infrastructure. Discover the top-rated Blockstream Jade hardware wallet for secure offline storage, and explore the Blockstream Satellite for a seamless offline Bitcoin node experience — all available at the Blockstream Store. Visit: store.blockstream.com/discount/TBL for 10% off entire order.
🏡 Arch Lending is the Bitcoin-native solution for unlocking liquidity without selling your Bitcoin. Secure a loan using your Bitcoin as collateral, with zero rehypothecation and institutional-grade custody. Whether you're buying a home or investing in your business, Arch Lending helps you access capital while staying long BTC. Learn more at: archlending.com
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
📱 Follow TBL on X: twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer
📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial
🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch
⛓️ ₿lock Height 910808
⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: twitter.com/matthewrball
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Chapters:
00:00 Intro & Key Theme: Liquidity in Bitcoin
00:36 Understanding Liquidity and Debt Rollover
02:18 The Role of the Fed and US Treasury
05:09 Treasury Volatility and the MOVE Index
08:53 Liquidity Example: Sears Bankruptcy
12:18 The Dollar's Movement and Global Debt
15:19 Private Sector Debt Rollover & Economic Impact
18:24 Repo Markets, Cash Scarcity, and Funding Rates
23:34 Treasury Auctions and Dealer Roles
28:01 Bills vs. Bonds: Impact on Liquidity
33:37 The Yield Curve and Funding Costs
38:08 Current Macro Signals & Market Outlook
40:44 Liquidity Cycles and Final Thoughts
In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL researcher Demian Schatt to break down a major macro signal flashing caution across markets: a sudden spike in the MOVE Index, the bond market’s volatility gauge. He explains why the recent Treasury refunding announcement is pushing rollover risk higher, and what that means for liquidity, credit creation, and risk assets like Bitcoin. Nik also explores the current strength in the dollar, the potential for higher volatility in duration, and whether the multi-month trend of rising liquidity is starting to reverse.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
🔓 The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today.
Visit unchained.com/tbl and use the code TBL10 for a 10% credit towards your first year's account fees.
📡 Blockstream delivers cutting-edge Bitcoin infrastructure. Discover the top-rated Blockstream Jade hardware wallet for secure offline storage, and explore the Blockstream Satellite for a seamless offline Bitcoin node experience — all available at the Blockstream Store. Visit: store.blockstream.com/discount/TBL for 10% off entire order.
🏡 Arch Lending is the Bitcoin-native solution for unlocking liquidity without selling your Bitcoin. Secure a loan using your Bitcoin as collateral, with zero rehypothecation and institutional-grade custody. Whether you're buying a home or investing in your business, Arch Lending helps you access capital while staying long BTC. Learn more at: archlending.com
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
📱 Follow TBL on X: twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer
📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial
🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch
⛓️ ₿lock Height 910808
⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: twitter.com/matthewrball
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Chapters:
00:00 Intro & Key Theme: Liquidity in Bitcoin
00:36 Understanding Liquidity and Debt Rollover
02:18 The Role of the Fed and US Treasury
05:09 Treasury Volatility and the MOVE Index
08:53 Liquidity Example: Sears Bankruptcy
12:18 The Dollar's Movement and Global Debt
15:19 Private Sector Debt Rollover & Economic Impact
18:24 Repo Markets, Cash Scarcity, and Funding Rates
23:34 Treasury Auctions and Dealer Roles
28:01 Bills vs. Bonds: Impact on Liquidity
33:37 The Yield Curve and Funding Costs
38:08 Current Macro Signals & Market Outlook
40:44 Liquidity Cycles and Final Thoughts
