Uploaded January 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
The Islamic Republic is confronting the largest—and potentially most consequential—wave of protests since 2009. Nationwide uprisings have shaken the foundations of the state, igniting speculation that the regime may be approaching a breaking point—or even facing an internal coup. At the same time, regional and international tensions are escalating. Israel, backed by growing voices in Washington, has urged Donald Trump to take military action against Iran. Trump, for his part, has openly threatened strikes not only over Tehran’s nuclear and missile programs, but also in the name of “protecting the protesters.”
Is the theocratic regime in Tehran nearing its end? If it falls, could Iran finally embark on a path toward democracy—or will power simply shift from clerics to generals through a coup led by elements of the Revolutionary Guards? Alternatively, does the country risk descending into prolonged instability or civil war? And if the United States and Israel intervene militarily, what chain of consequences might follow—for Iran, the region, and the world?
To answer these questions and discuss the latest developments inside Iran, QI held a conversation featuring Vali Nasr, professor at Johns Hopkins University, Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of the Middle East program at ECFR, and Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaj. Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, moderated.
*Download the full webinar transcript here*:
quincyinst-2.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/12141046/Iran-at-a-Crossroads_-Protests-Repression-and-the-Risk-of-U.S.-Military-Escalation.docx.pdf
Quincy Institute is an independent, nonprofit think tank. To support our work:
Help fund our research: quincyinst.org/donations
Read our reporting: ResponsibleStatecraft.org
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Website: quincyinst.org
The Islamic Republic is confronting the largest—and potentially most consequential—wave of protests since 2009. Nationwide uprisings have shaken the foundations of the state, igniting speculation that the regime may be approaching a breaking point—or even facing an internal coup. At the same time, regional and international tensions are escalating. Israel, backed by growing voices in Washington, has urged Donald Trump to take military action against Iran. Trump, for his part, has openly threatened strikes not only over Tehran’s nuclear and missile programs, but also in the name of “protecting the protesters.”
Is the theocratic regime in Tehran nearing its end? If it falls, could Iran finally embark on a path toward democracy—or will power simply shift from clerics to generals through a coup led by elements of the Revolutionary Guards? Alternatively, does the country risk descending into prolonged instability or civil war? And if the United States and Israel intervene militarily, what chain of consequences might follow—for Iran, the region, and the world?
To answer these questions and discuss the latest developments inside Iran, QI held a conversation featuring Vali Nasr, professor at Johns Hopkins University, Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of the Middle East program at ECFR, and Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaj. Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, moderated.
*Download the full webinar transcript here*:
quincyinst-2.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/12141046/Iran-at-a-Crossroads_-Protests-Repression-and-the-Risk-of-U.S.-Military-Escalation.docx.pdf
Quincy Institute is an independent, nonprofit think tank. To support our work:
Help fund our research: quincyinst.org/donations
Read our reporting: ResponsibleStatecraft.org
TikTok: / quincyinst
Twitter: https://x.com/QuincyInst
Facebook: / quincyinst
Instagram: / quincyinst
Website: quincyinst.org
