Uploaded September 2022 | Updated September 2026, 11 hours ago
This video explains how the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) Short-Term Probabilistic Guidance is produced, based on ensemble river level forecasts. This guidance is designed to provide users with a range of possible river level (or flow) outcomes from the ensemble guidance, and the probability that these outcomes may occur. The video describes the different components of the guidance, and how each one may be used in a different way to understand these potential outcomes.
It is the second of a set of three videos explaining how to interpret and communicate hydrologic ensemble forecasts using the HEFS Short-Term Probabilistic Guidance. This video series is available as a training module on the MetEd site at:
How to Interpret the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service Short-Term Probabilistic Guidance
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/education_training/lesson/10210.
Aimed primarily at users of the HEFS Short-Term Probabilistic Guidance, these videos will be useful for anyone wishing to interpret and communicate hydrologic ensemble forecasts. This may include operational meteorologists, emergency managers, water managers, water utilities operators, and personnel at other similar agencies.
Note: The conceptual diagrams presented in this video, explaining the generation of exceedance lines and probability bands, are illustrative of the process and do not reflect the exact method used to produce the HEFS Guidance. Please consult your local River Forecast Center for more details.
Learning objectives:
1. Describe the process for creating probabilistic river level guidance from ensemble river level forecasts.
2. Identify and interpret probability bands, exceedance probabilities, and 10-day chance of exceedance to understand the river level forecasts in the HEFS Short-Term Probabilistic Guidance.
3. Explain the difference between exceedance probability lines and individual river level forecasts.
This video explains how the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) Short-Term Probabilistic Guidance is produced, based on ensemble river level forecasts. This guidance is designed to provide users with a range of possible river level (or flow) outcomes from the ensemble guidance, and the probability that these outcomes may occur. The video describes the different components of the guidance, and how each one may be used in a different way to understand these potential outcomes.
It is the second of a set of three videos explaining how to interpret and communicate hydrologic ensemble forecasts using the HEFS Short-Term Probabilistic Guidance. This video series is available as a training module on the MetEd site at:
How to Interpret the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service Short-Term Probabilistic Guidance
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/education_training/lesson/10210.
Aimed primarily at users of the HEFS Short-Term Probabilistic Guidance, these videos will be useful for anyone wishing to interpret and communicate hydrologic ensemble forecasts. This may include operational meteorologists, emergency managers, water managers, water utilities operators, and personnel at other similar agencies.
Note: The conceptual diagrams presented in this video, explaining the generation of exceedance lines and probability bands, are illustrative of the process and do not reflect the exact method used to produce the HEFS Guidance. Please consult your local River Forecast Center for more details.
Learning objectives:
1. Describe the process for creating probabilistic river level guidance from ensemble river level forecasts.
2. Identify and interpret probability bands, exceedance probabilities, and 10-day chance of exceedance to understand the river level forecasts in the HEFS Short-Term Probabilistic Guidance.
3. Explain the difference between exceedance probability lines and individual river level forecasts.
