Uploaded September 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
In this episode, Nik is joined by Dr. Jeff Ross to assess the US economy, global geopolitics, and what they mean for Bitcoin. They review the post-2020 policy regime, fiscal dominance, and why PMIs and new orders may be turning up, then discuss the Supreme Court path for tariffs, the US push on chips and energy, and the risk of a hot conflict with China. Jeff explains his liquidity blob framework, how the TGA and RRP shift money between the public and the government, and why expanding liquidity tends to move out the risk curve into assets like Bitcoin. The pair lay out a bullish near-term Bitcoin view if growth accelerates, the potential for a cycle that extends into 2026, and how AI, energy, and stablecoins could reshape credit and employment. They close with open questions on structural unemployment and the role of policy in an AI-driven economy.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
🔓 The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today.
Visit unchained.com/tbl and use the code TBL10 for a 10% credit towards your first year's account fees.
📡 Blockstream delivers cutting-edge Bitcoin infrastructure. Discover the top-rated Blockstream Jade hardware wallet for secure offline storage, and explore the Blockstream Satellite for a seamless offline Bitcoin node experience — all available at the Blockstream Store. Visit: store.blockstream.com/discount/TBL for 10% off entire order.
🏡 Arch Lending is the Bitcoin-native solution for unlocking liquidity without selling your Bitcoin. Secure a loan using your Bitcoin as collateral, with zero rehypothecation and institutional-grade custody. Whether you're buying a home or investing in your business, Arch Lending helps you access capital while staying long BTC. Learn more at: archlending.com
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
📱 Follow TBL on X: twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer
📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial
🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch
⛓️ ₿lock Height 913077
⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: twitter.com/matthewrball
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Chapters:
00:29 Views on the US Economy
02:02 Recapping Economic Shifts Since 2020
03:53 Unusual Business Cycles & Manufacturing
06:12 Outlook for US Manufacturing & Markets
09:02 Supreme Court Tariff Expectations
10:54 US Geopolitics & Global Tech Race
13:13 US Manufacturing, AI, and Energy Risks
16:24 Energy & Manufacturing Renaissance
20:55 Policy Changes & Fiscal Packages
25:32 Transition to Markets & Liquidity Overview
27:34 Understanding Liquidity in the Financial System
33:02 Market Cycles & Asset Prices
35:57 Bitcoin in the Current Market Cycle
39:19 The Role of AI, Robotics & Future Employment
43:06 Government, Markets & Structural Changes
44:02 Closing Remarks & Where to Find Dr. Jeff Ross
In this episode, Nik is joined by Dr. Jeff Ross to assess the US economy, global geopolitics, and what they mean for Bitcoin. They review the post-2020 policy regime, fiscal dominance, and why PMIs and new orders may be turning up, then discuss the Supreme Court path for tariffs, the US push on chips and energy, and the risk of a hot conflict with China. Jeff explains his liquidity blob framework, how the TGA and RRP shift money between the public and the government, and why expanding liquidity tends to move out the risk curve into assets like Bitcoin. The pair lay out a bullish near-term Bitcoin view if growth accelerates, the potential for a cycle that extends into 2026, and how AI, energy, and stablecoins could reshape credit and employment. They close with open questions on structural unemployment and the role of policy in an AI-driven economy.
📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H
📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.
🔓 The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by Unchained, the leader in Bitcoin financial services. Unchained empowers you to take full control of your Bitcoin with a collaborative multisig vault, where you hold two of three keys, and benefit from a Bitcoin security partner. Purchase Bitcoin directly into your cold storage vault and eliminate exchange risks with Unchained's Trading Desk. Unchained also offers the best IRA product in the industry, allowing you to easily roll over old 401(k)s or IRAs into Bitcoin while keeping control of your keys. Don’t pay more taxes than you have to. Talk to us today.
Visit unchained.com/tbl and use the code TBL10 for a 10% credit towards your first year's account fees.
📡 Blockstream delivers cutting-edge Bitcoin infrastructure. Discover the top-rated Blockstream Jade hardware wallet for secure offline storage, and explore the Blockstream Satellite for a seamless offline Bitcoin node experience — all available at the Blockstream Store. Visit: store.blockstream.com/discount/TBL for 10% off entire order.
🏡 Arch Lending is the Bitcoin-native solution for unlocking liquidity without selling your Bitcoin. Secure a loan using your Bitcoin as collateral, with zero rehypothecation and institutional-grade custody. Whether you're buying a home or investing in your business, Arch Lending helps you access capital while staying long BTC. Learn more at: archlending.com
▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.
📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe
🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.
📱 Follow TBL on X: twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer
📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial
🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch
⛓️ ₿lock Height 913077
⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg
Nik Bhatia's Twitter: twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: twitter.com/matthewrball
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB
❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
Chapters:
00:29 Views on the US Economy
02:02 Recapping Economic Shifts Since 2020
03:53 Unusual Business Cycles & Manufacturing
06:12 Outlook for US Manufacturing & Markets
09:02 Supreme Court Tariff Expectations
10:54 US Geopolitics & Global Tech Race
13:13 US Manufacturing, AI, and Energy Risks
16:24 Energy & Manufacturing Renaissance
20:55 Policy Changes & Fiscal Packages
25:32 Transition to Markets & Liquidity Overview
27:34 Understanding Liquidity in the Financial System
33:02 Market Cycles & Asset Prices
35:57 Bitcoin in the Current Market Cycle
39:19 The Role of AI, Robotics & Future Employment
43:06 Government, Markets & Structural Changes
44:02 Closing Remarks & Where to Find Dr. Jeff Ross
