Uploaded September 2025 | Updated September 2026, 12 hours ago

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"That's the firewall between recession and no recession, is the low layoffs," he said. "So we're not in recession, but I'd say the indicator that's flashing reddest is jobs."
"As soon as you see negative employment—payroll employment decline in a month—that's when alarm bells should start going off," he added. "And I would anticipate that that's going to happen, and that's going happen soon."
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