Mathemaniac | How will the COVID-19 (coronavirus) epidemic end? @mathemaniac | Uploaded 4 years ago | Updated 3 minutes ago
When will the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic end? How many people will die from it? How many people will get an infection? How much should you worry about it? This video hopefully can give you a sense of what to expect via a simple mathematical model. It is a standard one with reasonable accuracy, called the SIR model, which illustrates exponential growth / decay depending on the ratio between two constants, called the basic reproduction ratio / number (i.e. R0). The prediction from the model is not that optimistic...
We are still in the exponential growth stage, but eventually it has to be a logistic curve, and the video discusses where the plateau will be, and the time scale at which the plateau will be achieved.
The video seems to be making a wild claim, but it really isn't. This is what some UK health officials predicted as well: theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised?fbclid=IwAR2XWpGi3diiS4rrWwBjtSbOWY8A85THZL7D3w06X17Xlmo9yrF4Z9KW9pk
The measures that can be taken to reduce the number of infected individuals, as in the last part of the video, should give enough context to show how seemingly insignificant local measures can have a huge impact, and ultimately persuading the public to stay on alert and take part in those measures described.
Sources:
The spreadsheet generating the numbers: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14XWEmLefkh-jRiHMeWc8kvM3sk9Q-Mx4EYHHlOSC_1Q/edit?usp=sharing
Worldometer statistics: worldometers.info/coronavirus
SIR model: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SIR_model
Other than commenting on the video, you are very welcome to fill in a Google form linked below, which helps me make better videos by catering for your math levels:
https://forms.gle/QJ29hocF9uQAyZyH6
If you want to know more interesting Mathematics, stay tuned for the next video!
SUBSCRIBE and see you in the next video!
If you are wondering how I made all these videos, even though it is stylistically similar to 3Blue1Brown, I don't use his animation engine Manim, but I will probably reveal how I did it in a potential subscriber milestone, so do subscribe!
Stay safe everyone! Please do wear a mask to protect ourselves, and stay at home as much as possible. We will get through this together.
#coronavirus #COVID_19 #epidemic #mathematics #mathemaniac #math #washyourhands #dontgoout #pandemic #flattenthecurve
Social media:
Facebook: facebook.com/mathemaniacyt
Instagram: instagram.com/_mathemaniac_
Twitter: twitter.com/mathemaniacyt
For my contact email, check my About page on a PC.
See you next time!
When will the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic end? How many people will die from it? How many people will get an infection? How much should you worry about it? This video hopefully can give you a sense of what to expect via a simple mathematical model. It is a standard one with reasonable accuracy, called the SIR model, which illustrates exponential growth / decay depending on the ratio between two constants, called the basic reproduction ratio / number (i.e. R0). The prediction from the model is not that optimistic...
We are still in the exponential growth stage, but eventually it has to be a logistic curve, and the video discusses where the plateau will be, and the time scale at which the plateau will be achieved.
The video seems to be making a wild claim, but it really isn't. This is what some UK health officials predicted as well: theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised?fbclid=IwAR2XWpGi3diiS4rrWwBjtSbOWY8A85THZL7D3w06X17Xlmo9yrF4Z9KW9pk
The measures that can be taken to reduce the number of infected individuals, as in the last part of the video, should give enough context to show how seemingly insignificant local measures can have a huge impact, and ultimately persuading the public to stay on alert and take part in those measures described.
Sources:
The spreadsheet generating the numbers: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14XWEmLefkh-jRiHMeWc8kvM3sk9Q-Mx4EYHHlOSC_1Q/edit?usp=sharing
Worldometer statistics: worldometers.info/coronavirus
SIR model: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SIR_model
Other than commenting on the video, you are very welcome to fill in a Google form linked below, which helps me make better videos by catering for your math levels:
https://forms.gle/QJ29hocF9uQAyZyH6
If you want to know more interesting Mathematics, stay tuned for the next video!
SUBSCRIBE and see you in the next video!
If you are wondering how I made all these videos, even though it is stylistically similar to 3Blue1Brown, I don't use his animation engine Manim, but I will probably reveal how I did it in a potential subscriber milestone, so do subscribe!
Stay safe everyone! Please do wear a mask to protect ourselves, and stay at home as much as possible. We will get through this together.
#coronavirus #COVID_19 #epidemic #mathematics #mathemaniac #math #washyourhands #dontgoout #pandemic #flattenthecurve
Social media:
Facebook: facebook.com/mathemaniacyt
Instagram: instagram.com/_mathemaniac_
Twitter: twitter.com/mathemaniacyt
For my contact email, check my About page on a PC.
See you next time!
![Limitations of mathematical models; historical context of BGW process [PART III]](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/zjlpZ0xPnYI/hqdefault.jpg "Limitations of mathematical models; historical context of BGW process [PART III]
Part 3 of a series on a stochastic process approach to model the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) as opposed to the compartmental deterministic SIR model. This model is generally known as branching process, but this video only focuses on the simplest type, called Bienaymé-Galton-Watson (BGW) process. This video will especially be on the inevitable limitations on the BGW process model, to illustrate the limitations of any mathematical model in general. There can be problems in applicability and difficulty in interpreting data from the predictions of the model, but we can always strive to make the model more realistic. But the cost would be more complicated mathematics, and higher computing power necessary.
The historical context of the Bienaymé-Galton-Watson (BGW) process will be also discussed in this video, and it is actually a bit more interesting than usual. It is not just that the three mathematicians got together and studied this process.
I currently dont have a solid plan for my future videos, but feel free to comment below about the topics that I can cover in a future video!
REFERENCES / SOURCES:
(1) Branching Processes: Their Role in Epidemiology [basis / limitations / improvement of the model]
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2872325/pdf/ijerph-07-01186.pdf
(2) Branching Processes Since 1873 [historical context of the Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process]
https://londmathsoc.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1112/jlms/s1-41.1.385
(3) The Genealogy of Genealogy Branching Processes before (and after) 1873 [historical context of the Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process]
https://londmathsoc.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1112/blms/7.3.225
(4) The Educational Times (March 1873) [Galtons original famous Problem 4001; historical context of the Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process]
https://web.archive.org/web/20170123114453/http://ioearc.da.ulcc.ac.uk/9344/1/Educational%20Times%20Vol%2025%20Iss%20143.PDF
(5) The Educational Times (August 1873) [Watsons (brief) answer to the Problem 4001; historical context of the Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process]
https://web.archive.org/web/20161201212518/http://ioearc.da.ulcc.ac.uk/9309/1/Educational%20Times%20Vol%2026%20Iss%20148.PDF
(6) On the probability of extinction of families [Watsons paper / more detailed albeit partially incorrect answer to the Problem 4001; historical context of the Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process]
https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2841222.pdf
(7) BBC news [breaking lockdown rules complaint]: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-humber-53361096
(8) Guardian [KFC party breaking recent lockdown in Melbourne]:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/10/kfc-birthday-party-in-melbourne-costs-26000-in-covid-19-fines-after-police-track-order
(9) Metro [18000 people breaking lockdown rules]: https://metro.co.uk/2020/06/28/18000-people-fined-breaking-lockdown-rules-since-march-12913927/
(10) Contact tracing map: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-contact-tracing?year=2020-07-10
(11) What is contact tracing (CDC): https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/contact-tracing.html
Other than commenting on the video, you are very welcome to fill in a Google form linked below, which helps me make better videos by catering for your math levels:
https://forms.gle/QJ29hocF9uQAyZyH6
If you want to know more interesting Mathematics, stay tuned for the next video!
SUBSCRIBE and see you in the next video!
If you are wondering how I made all these videos, even though it is stylistically similar to 3Blue1Brown, I dont use his animation engine Manim, but I will probably reveal how I did it in a potential subscriber milestone, so do subscribe!
#mathemaniac #math #coronavirus #COVID_19 #SIRmodel #statistics #probability #epidemic #pandemic
Stay safe everyone! Please do wear a mask to protect ourselves, and stay at home as much as possible. We will get through this together.
Social media:
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mathemaniacyt
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/_mathemaniac_/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/mathemaniacyt
For my contact email, check my About page on a PC.
See you next time!")
![How likely is coronavirus (COVID-19) eradicated? [PART II]](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/zw8p9_NzSGU/hqdefault.jpg "How likely is coronavirus (COVID-19) eradicated? [PART II]
Part 2 of a series of videos on a stochastic process approach to model the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) as opposed to the compartmental deterministic SIR model. This model is generally known as branching process, but this video only focuses on the simplest type, called Bienaymé-Galton-Watson (BGW) process. This video will explore how we can extract the extinction probability (probability that coronavirus will eventually get eradicated) from the BGW process using the cobwebbing technique. Although it is not a rigorous approach, it is a very nice visual way to see whats happening. We then, not too surprisingly, come up with the concept of basic reproduction number, a concept that is seen in both the BGW model and the SIR model.
This video will involve concepts like distribution, independence, expected value, generating function, and the cobwebbing techniques to visualise iteration processes and so on, but a basic understanding of the concept of probabilities will be good, and basic understanding on differentiation (definition as slope of a function, power rule and linearity of the differential operator) will be required.
The next video on the limitations / improvement and the historical context of the BGW process should be released in a couple of days, because they are already done.
REFERENCES / SOURCES (which I will explain in much more detail in later videos that I promised, but if you are impatient, you can read these):
(1) Branching Processes: Their Role in Epidemiology [basis / limitations / improvement of the model]
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2872325/pdf/ijerph-07-01186.pdf
(2) Branching Processes Since 1873 [historical context of the Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process]
https://londmathsoc.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1112/jlms/s1-41.1.385
(3) The Genealogy of Genealogy Branching Processes before (and after) 1873 [historical context of the Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process]
https://londmathsoc.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1112/blms/7.3.225
(4) The Educational Times (March 1873) [Galtons original famous Problem 4001; historical context of the Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process]
https://web.archive.org/web/20170123114453/http://ioearc.da.ulcc.ac.uk/9344/1/Educational%20Times%20Vol%2025%20Iss%20143.PDF
(5) The Educational Times (August 1873) [Watsons (brief) answer to the Problem 4001; historical context of the Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process]
https://web.archive.org/web/20161201212518/http://ioearc.da.ulcc.ac.uk/9309/1/Educational%20Times%20Vol%2026%20Iss%20148.PDF
(6) On the probability of extinction of families [Watsons paper / more detailed albeit partially incorrect answer to the Problem 4001; historical context of the Bienaymé-Galton-Watson process]
https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2841222.pdf
Other than commenting on the video, you are very welcome to fill in a Google form linked below, which helps me make better videos by catering for your math levels:
https://forms.gle/QJ29hocF9uQAyZyH6
If you want to know more interesting Mathematics, stay tuned for the next video!
SUBSCRIBE and see you in the next video!
If you are wondering how I made all these videos, even though it is stylistically similar to 3Blue1Brown, I dont use his animation engine Manim, but I will probably reveal how I did it in a potential subscriber milestone, so do subscribe!
#mathemaniac #math #coronavirus #COVID_19 #SIRmodel #statistics #probability #epidemic #pandemic
Stay safe everyone! Please do wear a mask to protect ourselves, and stay at home as much as possible. We will get through this together.
Social media:
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mathemaniacyt
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/_mathemaniac_/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/mathemaniacyt
For my contact email, check my About page on a PC.
See you next time!")
