Uploaded December 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Most of us chase goals — starting a business, running a marathon, getting a promotion — without ever asking: What are the actual odds this will work?
My guest today says those odds aren’t just graspable — they’re hackable.
Kyle Austin Young is a strategy consultant and the author of Success Is a Numbers Game (amzn.to/4iYttYe) . He argues that every goal comes with a hidden probability of success or failure, and by thinking strategically — rather than just hoping for the best — you can tilt the odds in your favor.
In the first part of our conversation, Kyle explains the three common ways people pursue goals and their potential downsides. We then unpack how to approach your goals through probability hacking. We discuss how to spot the weak links in your plan, how to map out a “success diagram” that helps you avoid common pitfalls and pursue goals more intelligently, and how to use these same principles to know when you should quit a goal.
Resources Related to the Podcast
• AoM Podcast #387: Think Like a Poker Player to Make Better Decisions (artofmanliness.com/character/advice/how-to-make-better-decisions/)
• AoM Podcast # (artofmanliness.com/character/advice/how-to-make-better-decisions/) 840: When to Quit (artofmanliness.com/character/behavior/podcast-840-when-to-quit/)
• AoM Podcast # (artofmanliness.com/character/advice/how-to-make-better-decisions/) 490: Can You Learn to Be Lucky? (artofmanliness.com/character/behavior/podcast-490-can-you-learn-to-be-lucky/)
Connect With Kyle Austin Young
• Kyle's website (kyleaustinyoung.com/)
• Kyle on LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/kyleaustinyoung)
Most of us chase goals — starting a business, running a marathon, getting a promotion — without ever asking: What are the actual odds this will work?
My guest today says those odds aren’t just graspable — they’re hackable.
Kyle Austin Young is a strategy consultant and the author of Success Is a Numbers Game (amzn.to/4iYttYe) . He argues that every goal comes with a hidden probability of success or failure, and by thinking strategically — rather than just hoping for the best — you can tilt the odds in your favor.
In the first part of our conversation, Kyle explains the three common ways people pursue goals and their potential downsides. We then unpack how to approach your goals through probability hacking. We discuss how to spot the weak links in your plan, how to map out a “success diagram” that helps you avoid common pitfalls and pursue goals more intelligently, and how to use these same principles to know when you should quit a goal.
Resources Related to the Podcast
• AoM Podcast #387: Think Like a Poker Player to Make Better Decisions (artofmanliness.com/character/advice/how-to-make-better-decisions/)
• AoM Podcast # (artofmanliness.com/character/advice/how-to-make-better-decisions/) 840: When to Quit (artofmanliness.com/character/behavior/podcast-840-when-to-quit/)
• AoM Podcast # (artofmanliness.com/character/advice/how-to-make-better-decisions/) 490: Can You Learn to Be Lucky? (artofmanliness.com/character/behavior/podcast-490-can-you-learn-to-be-lucky/)
Connect With Kyle Austin Young
• Kyle's website (kyleaustinyoung.com/)
• Kyle on LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/kyleaustinyoung)
