Uploaded January 2026 | Updated September 2026, 5 days ago
In this beginner-friendly panel, Jason Pizzino, Michael Pizzino, Matt Wilemsen, George Kaltekis, and Orlando Moors break down how newcomers can approach their first crypto investment with confidence. Covering fundamentals, risk management, research frameworks, and common mistakes, the session provides practical guidance for anyone starting their crypto journey.
🎥 Recorded live at AusCryptoCon 2025.
In this beginner-friendly panel, Jason Pizzino, Michael Pizzino, Matt Wilemsen, George Kaltekis, and Orlando Moors break down how newcomers can approach their first crypto investment with confidence. Covering fundamentals, risk management, research frameworks, and common mistakes, the session provides practical guidance for anyone starting their crypto journey.
🎥 Recorded live at AusCryptoCon 2025.
![Bitcoin Market Cycles & Price Predictions: CoinJar Customer Data Analysis
What does real exchange data tell us about the future of Bitcoin?
Nicole Buckler from CoinJar, shares exclusive insights and customer data analysis at AusCryptoCon 2024. Learn about historical Bitcoin market cycles, calendar effects (Thanksgiving, Santa Rally, Chinese New Year), and CoinJars predictions for Bitcoins price movements based on user behavior and market trends.
Discover whether the recent Bitcoin all-time high is just the beginning and gain a data-driven perspective on navigating the crypto bull market.
[0:55] CoinJar Customer Demographics: Older Millennials, Gen X & Tradies are Key Users - Analysis of CoinJars user demographics, revealing that older Millennials, Gen X, and tradies are key customer segments.
[2:38] Market Cycles & Calendar Effects: CoinJar Data-Driven Predictions - Introduction to the presentations core topic: using CoinJars historical data to predict Bitcoin price movements based on market cycles and calendar effects.
[2:58] US Elections & Bitcoin Price: Economic Stimulus & Risk-On Assets - Explains the impact of US elections on Bitcoin prices due to government economic stimulus and increased risk appetite.
[3:07] Bitcoin Halving & Calendar Effects: Key Factors Influencing Market Cycles - Highlights Bitcoin halving and calendar effects as key drivers of market cycles discussed in the presentation.
[3:30] Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice - Educational Insights Only - Standard disclaimer that the presentation is for educational purposes and not financial advice.
[3:35] Thanksgiving Effect: Nothing Burger - Limited Impact on Bitcoin Price - Analysis of Thanksgiving week effect on Bitcoin price, concluding its generally a nothing burger with limited price impact.
[5:47] Santa Claus Rally: Santa Claus is Real! - Historically Bullish for Bitcoin in December - Analysis of the Santa Claus rally effect, concluding it is historically a bullish period for Bitcoin, especially in election/halving years.
[7:46] Last Week of December Effect: Just Ignore - Not Significant for Bitcoin Price - Analysis of the last week of December, suggesting its not a significant period for Bitcoin price movements, and can be ignored.
[8:13] Early January - Santas Hangover: Stagnant Period After Christmas Rally - Analysis of the first two weeks of January, describing it as a Santas Hangover period with potential price stagnation due to post-holiday effects.
[8:56] Chinese New Year Effect: Not That Strong - Limited Impact on Bitcoin Price - Analysis of Chinese New Year effect, concluding it has a limited and not very strong impact on Bitcoin prices based on CoinJar data.
[10:13] Mid-January to End of April - Golden Hour of Calendar: Historically Strong Period - Highlights mid-January to end of April as the golden hour for Bitcoin, showing historically strong returns in post-election/halving years.
[11:24] Sell in May and Go Away Effect: Retro Thinking - Not Consistent in Crypto Market - Analysis of the Sell in May and Go Away theory, arguing its not consistently applicable to crypto markets based on CoinJar data.
[12:53] June to August - Golden Months: High Risk, High Reward Bullish Period - Highlights June to August as potentially golden months with high risk and high reward potential in post-election/halving years, especially after a May/June correction.
[13:29] October - Halloween Effect: Risky Plank Walk - High Volatility & Potential Bare Market Start - Describes October as a risky plank walk period, indicating high volatility and potential for the bear market to emerge.
[14:13] CoinJar Customer Data Since 2014: Buying vs. Selling Pressure at All-Time Highs - Introduction to CoinJars customer data analysis since 2014, focusing on buying and selling pressure around all-time highs.
[15:00] Current All-Time High Analysis: Retail Selling Bitcoin, Institutions Buying - Current market analysis: CoinJar data shows retail customers selling Bitcoin at the recent all-time high, while institutional investors are buying.
[15:58] Retail Buyers Returning: Recent Data Suggests Potential for Further Price Increase - Recent data suggests retail buyers are returning to the market, indicating potential for Bitcoin price to continue rising beyond the recent all-time high.
[16:39] Bonus Indicator: Reactivating Old Accounts - Not Yet at Peak Bull Market - Bonus indicator: CoinJar data on users reactivating old accounts, suggesting the peak bull market hasnt been reached yet as reactivation numbers are not yet surging. Bitcoin Market Cycles & Price Predictions: CoinJar Customer Data Analysis](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/y9dTL5_GHF0/mqdefault.jpg)




