Jeff Hester | How many lives would opening schools destroy? @jeffhester6874 | Uploaded August 2020 | Updated October 2024, 3 minutes ago.
Many school districts in the United States are talking about reopening this fall. That experiment has already been done in Israel. At this point the results of that decision look like they may well topple the nation’s government. The numbers would be far worse in the United States for the simple reason that we are wildly worse off right now than Israel was at the time of its decision.
Using a few simple assumptions I take what happened in Israel and scale it to what we might expect in the U.S. I focus on Mesa, Arizona public schools, which is where I live, to get a sense of what things would look like locally. Within a couple of months Mesa could see an average of one death per every 5 campuses, and significantly more for especially large school.
I want to stress that that number is DEATHS, not cases. Case numbers would be far larger, as would the number of District employees hospitalized for severe illnesses. But that is only the tip of the iceberg, because in Israel school openings caused outbreaks that spread into the community. Again, using simple scaling for every death of a District employee we might expect to see six additional deaths in the community. In places where schools reopen the substantial majority of those whose lives are ruined will not know that the chain of infection that got them came from a school.
For teachers, these could easily be lowball estimates. Remember that it is schools that trigger the outbreak; schools are far more dangerous places that most other environments. And for teachers who are in their 60’s there might be another ten times the risk because that is the age where COVID-19 really starts to take a toll.
It seems unlikely that we will see these numbers. Many districts in the state have the sense not to open, despite pressure from the Governor’s office. And then there is the simple fact that as school districts blow up — which is already starting to happen — schools are going to be shutting things down again anyway. But those shutdowns won’t come until carnage has been inflicted on employees and the community.
These decisions are in the hands of a remarkably few people, none of whom have the expertise to make them. In the case of Mesa, members of the Governing Board include someone with a degree in Home Economics Education, a former history teacher, an accountant, a former elementary school teacher, and someone with a background in public administration. I take nothing away from these people, none of whom signed on to shepherd a school district though a global pandemic! But that does not change the fact that none of them have the kind of background needed make sense of what is happening. As a result, they are thinking more about politics than public health.
Couple that with the fact that state benchmarks (which are only suggestions) are ridiculously lax, and the District is facing the possibility of disaster.
The question that I have for those making these decisions is obvious once you think about it. I challenge each of them to start naming the people in the District and the community who deserve to die so that schools can open face to face for a few weeks.
_______________
After a career in astrophysics I turned my eye to helping people and organizations find success in the face of rapid change. Reach out and we can explore possibilities. You can follow my thoughts on Facebook (facebook.com/Dr.Jeff.Hester/), youTube, and at http://www.jeff-hester.com.
Many school districts in the United States are talking about reopening this fall. That experiment has already been done in Israel. At this point the results of that decision look like they may well topple the nation’s government. The numbers would be far worse in the United States for the simple reason that we are wildly worse off right now than Israel was at the time of its decision.
Using a few simple assumptions I take what happened in Israel and scale it to what we might expect in the U.S. I focus on Mesa, Arizona public schools, which is where I live, to get a sense of what things would look like locally. Within a couple of months Mesa could see an average of one death per every 5 campuses, and significantly more for especially large school.
I want to stress that that number is DEATHS, not cases. Case numbers would be far larger, as would the number of District employees hospitalized for severe illnesses. But that is only the tip of the iceberg, because in Israel school openings caused outbreaks that spread into the community. Again, using simple scaling for every death of a District employee we might expect to see six additional deaths in the community. In places where schools reopen the substantial majority of those whose lives are ruined will not know that the chain of infection that got them came from a school.
For teachers, these could easily be lowball estimates. Remember that it is schools that trigger the outbreak; schools are far more dangerous places that most other environments. And for teachers who are in their 60’s there might be another ten times the risk because that is the age where COVID-19 really starts to take a toll.
It seems unlikely that we will see these numbers. Many districts in the state have the sense not to open, despite pressure from the Governor’s office. And then there is the simple fact that as school districts blow up — which is already starting to happen — schools are going to be shutting things down again anyway. But those shutdowns won’t come until carnage has been inflicted on employees and the community.
These decisions are in the hands of a remarkably few people, none of whom have the expertise to make them. In the case of Mesa, members of the Governing Board include someone with a degree in Home Economics Education, a former history teacher, an accountant, a former elementary school teacher, and someone with a background in public administration. I take nothing away from these people, none of whom signed on to shepherd a school district though a global pandemic! But that does not change the fact that none of them have the kind of background needed make sense of what is happening. As a result, they are thinking more about politics than public health.
Couple that with the fact that state benchmarks (which are only suggestions) are ridiculously lax, and the District is facing the possibility of disaster.
The question that I have for those making these decisions is obvious once you think about it. I challenge each of them to start naming the people in the District and the community who deserve to die so that schools can open face to face for a few weeks.
_______________
After a career in astrophysics I turned my eye to helping people and organizations find success in the face of rapid change. Reach out and we can explore possibilities. You can follow my thoughts on Facebook (facebook.com/Dr.Jeff.Hester/), youTube, and at http://www.jeff-hester.com.
