Uploaded May 2020 | Updated September 2026, 4 hours ago
Statisticians cannot predict the prevalence of Covid 19 or its mortality without tests that are accurate. Until recently we have had PCR tests that had far too many false positive and negative test results to allow accurate predictions of prevalence or mortality. Finally, we now have an antibody test that can measure the incidence of Covid 19 but still cannot predict the presence of immunity. Until we isolate the Covid 19 virus we will have a very poor chance of creating a vaccine that is safe and effective.
Statisticians cannot predict the prevalence of Covid 19 or its mortality without tests that are accurate. Until recently we have had PCR tests that had far too many false positive and negative test results to allow accurate predictions of prevalence or mortality. Finally, we now have an antibody test that can measure the incidence of Covid 19 but still cannot predict the presence of immunity. Until we isolate the Covid 19 virus we will have a very poor chance of creating a vaccine that is safe and effective.
