Uploaded April 2026 | Updated September 2026, 9 hours ago
The European economy expanded by 1.4 % in the final quarter of 2025. However, given the subsequent conflict in the Middle East and the rapid shifts in market data, the economic outlook is now exceptionally uncertain.
In its latest macroeconomic projections, the ECB has employed scenario analysis to assess potential risks. The adverse scenario – assuming oil prices peak at US$119 per barrel and gas at €87/MWh in the second quarter of 2026 (levels almost reached in the first days of the conflict) – stands in stark contrast to the pre-conflict stability of roughly US$70 and €31.
The baseline forecast for 2026 euro-area GDP growth has been revised down to 0.9 %, a 0.3 percentage point drop from December projections, as the energy shock and geopolitical risks erode business and consumer confidence.
Learn more in our EPRS Economic Outlook: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_BRI(2026)782678
The European economy expanded by 1.4 % in the final quarter of 2025. However, given the subsequent conflict in the Middle East and the rapid shifts in market data, the economic outlook is now exceptionally uncertain.
In its latest macroeconomic projections, the ECB has employed scenario analysis to assess potential risks. The adverse scenario – assuming oil prices peak at US$119 per barrel and gas at €87/MWh in the second quarter of 2026 (levels almost reached in the first days of the conflict) – stands in stark contrast to the pre-conflict stability of roughly US$70 and €31.
The baseline forecast for 2026 euro-area GDP growth has been revised down to 0.9 %, a 0.3 percentage point drop from December projections, as the energy shock and geopolitical risks erode business and consumer confidence.
Learn more in our EPRS Economic Outlook: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_BRI(2026)782678
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See the paper publication behind this podcast:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_ATA(2023)747441
Subscribe to EPRS Science and Technology Podcasts:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/audio-podcasts.html")
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Subscribe to EPRS Policy Podcasts: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/audio-podcasts.html
See the paper publication behind this podcast:https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_BRI(2023)751447")
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Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is not only reshaping the security architecture of Europe, but is also influencing the EU’s position as a global actor. With rising tensions between the US and China, the EU will find itself in an increasingly bipolar world. The rules-based global order is challenged and strategic relations around the world are being redefined. Key states from the so-called ‘Global South’ are becoming more important for ‘the West’ in its move to isolate Russia and to address global challenges.
Subscribe to EPRS Policy Podcasts: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/audio-podcasts.html
See the paper publication behind this podcast:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_STU(2023)751428")
