Flat vs. Concave (Black Swan Comparison) @heathcarmody2867

Heath Carmody | Flat vs. Concave (Black Swan Comparison) @heathcarmody2867 | Uploaded April 2023 | Updated October 2024, 7 hours ago.
This is a rough comparison of an observation against a flat geometric prediction. There is no comparison to a convex surface globe model in this video. In this case we are measuring upward displacement caused by downward refraction over an assumed flat plane water surface, and the apparent height limit that this effect was occurring.

This is a typical "black swan" observation, where the water surface appears concave (rising up with distance) from lower elevations. There is considerable compression, miraging and distortion, but no obstruction. Nothing can be obstructed above eye level, although targets can be compressed and visually obscured beyond recognition.

I've been working on this video off and on since March 19th (Shelter Bay observation #3) and I keep going back to make things more accurate as I confirm heights and remeasure everything. Still, I can't guarantee the accuracy of this analysis. It's a good starting point and I'm confident that everything is close, but I'm also open to any suggestions for getting more accurate results. At some point I'll provide a more detailed look at how I determined the rough heights of everything.

$Flat vs. Concave (Black Swan Comparison) This is a rough comparison of an observation against a flat geometric prediction. There is no comparison to a convex surface globe model in this video. In this case we are measuring upward displacement caused by downward refraction over an assumed flat plane water surface, and the apparent height limit that this effect was occurring. This is a typical black swan observation, where the water surface appears concave (rising up with distance) from lower elevations. There is considerable compression, miraging and distortion, but no obstruction. Nothing can be obstructed above eye level, although targets can be compressed and visually obscured beyond recognition. Ive been working on this video off and on since March 19th (Shelter Bay observation #3) and I keep going back to make things more accurate as I confirm heights and remeasure everything. Still, I cant guarantee the accuracy of this analysis. Its a good starting point and Im confident that everything is close, but Im also open to any suggestions for getting more accurate results. At some point Ill provide a more detailed look at how I determined the rough heights of everything.$

$Shelter Bay Observation #11 - 2 Camera Time Synced Time Lapse Trying something different since I have hours and hours of footage that I think is mildly interesting, but hard to make an actual meaningful video with. Observation #11 was one of my most active refraction days from all the elevations that I recorded from. It was a hot, sunny day reaching about 25°C with the water around 11°C. This footage is also from the same day as In-Ferry-Or Mirage Day 11 for further reference. And also the spinning wet ball short video. Theres a few key points to notice in the footage and discuss in the comments. 1: The lower camera (small frame) only features obstruction of the land when there is one or more inferior mirages present. Something consistent with 95% of my observations. 2. The higher camera never shows actual obstruction of the land (besides occasionally with inferior mirage) even though some should be hidden from this height. Instead, the visible water line fluctuates more with the mirage and often appears far more distant than the land. 3. The mirage effects dont always seem to coincide from the different heights, not that they necessarily should. 4. We see too much too often with complicated and unpredictable mirage conditions. Even with strong close inferior mirage, we see too much above the fold line except for early when the mirage is strongest (and most consistent). You may want to mute the video if you dont like dark ambient background music. I had some in my library that I could never find a suitable video for. Somehow I think it works with the tree refraction and certain things going on, although it makes an otherwise beautiful sunny Sunday seem more like an apocalyptic nightmare. Its music Id loosely associate with the term looming. If you want more detailed information on the observation, just ask in the comments, or wait for the target info video, for anyone serious about proving anything with observations over water. Including proving that they cant prove anything.$

Black Swansynth (Concave Earth at Sunset)

$Repeat of a One Time Observation (short inferior mirage transition time lapse) Got another unplanned chance to go back to the same location as in my Opportunistic Observation video. A much calmer day this time. Its a very nice lake, but a bit of a drive and not the best viewing distance range or far target reference for analyzing apparent Earth shape. The inferior mirage disappears gradually revealing more land and water, while the rest of the image remains virtually unchanged over the course. Except for the background blurring near the end, which might have been a focus thing. This is probably when the complicated mirage effects would have started, since the local lakes are a mixing bowl of vastly different temperature water right now. That combined with the extreme spring heat weve had lately should make for some very dynamic refraction effects after the initial inferior mirage phase. This is shot at a fairly wide angle compared to most of my time lapse, so while the refraction effects may seem subtle, its still a fairly big/strong inferior mirage at the start. Camera height wasnt measured but its in the half meter range. I may research and post the distances of the 3 points of land, if anyone cares that much. Unfortunately, my battery died after just over 2 hours of recording, even though it was charging while recording. Being in the direct hot sun around midday might have been a factor as well. No claims, comparisons or subtitles. Easy enough video to make that I dont even care if it only gets 50 views. Thanks for watching!$

$Strong Upward Refraction Over Land (on a cloudy, rainy day)$

Fata Morgana of a Boat Floating Above The Water