Uploaded September 2025 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Watch the live webcast of the Interim Economic Outlook presentation!
Global growth proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2025, especially in many emerging markets but also the United States. Industrial production and trade were buoyed by front-loading ahead of higher tariffs. US tariffs on imports from almost all countries have increased since May, reaching an estimated effective rate of 19.5% at the end of August, the highest since the mid-1930s. While the full impact of tariff increases is still unfolding, early signs of effects are visible in consumer behaviour, labour markets and prices. Labour markets are softening, with higher unemployment and fewer job openings in some economies, while disinflation has stalled in many economies as food prices rose and services inflation remained persistent. Looking ahead, downside risks loom large: further tariff hikes, increased concerns about fiscal risks, renewed inflation pressures could weigh on growth. Financial market repricing, including of volatile crypto-assets could pose additional financial stability concerns. On the upside, easing trade restrictions or faster advances in AI could support stronger outcomes.
#oecd #economy
ABOUT THE OECD
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an international organization established in 1960 that works collaboratively to build better policies for better lives. Our goal is to shape policies that foster prosperity, equality, opportunity and well-being for all. Together with governments, policy makers, policy shapers, and citizens, we work on establishing evidence-based international standards and finding solutions to a range of social, economic and environmental challenges.
improving economic performance and creating jobs to fostering strong education and fighting international tax evasion, we provide a unique forum and knowledge hub for data and analysis, exchange of experiences, best-practice sharing, and advice on public policies and international standard-setting.
To learn more about the OECD, our global reach, and how to join us: oecd.org/about
To keep up with latest at the OECD: oecd.org
© OECD 2025. All rights reserved.
Watch the live webcast of the Interim Economic Outlook presentation!
Global growth proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2025, especially in many emerging markets but also the United States. Industrial production and trade were buoyed by front-loading ahead of higher tariffs. US tariffs on imports from almost all countries have increased since May, reaching an estimated effective rate of 19.5% at the end of August, the highest since the mid-1930s. While the full impact of tariff increases is still unfolding, early signs of effects are visible in consumer behaviour, labour markets and prices. Labour markets are softening, with higher unemployment and fewer job openings in some economies, while disinflation has stalled in many economies as food prices rose and services inflation remained persistent. Looking ahead, downside risks loom large: further tariff hikes, increased concerns about fiscal risks, renewed inflation pressures could weigh on growth. Financial market repricing, including of volatile crypto-assets could pose additional financial stability concerns. On the upside, easing trade restrictions or faster advances in AI could support stronger outcomes.
#oecd #economy
ABOUT THE OECD
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an international organization established in 1960 that works collaboratively to build better policies for better lives. Our goal is to shape policies that foster prosperity, equality, opportunity and well-being for all. Together with governments, policy makers, policy shapers, and citizens, we work on establishing evidence-based international standards and finding solutions to a range of social, economic and environmental challenges.
improving economic performance and creating jobs to fostering strong education and fighting international tax evasion, we provide a unique forum and knowledge hub for data and analysis, exchange of experiences, best-practice sharing, and advice on public policies and international standard-setting.
To learn more about the OECD, our global reach, and how to join us: oecd.org/about
To keep up with latest at the OECD: oecd.org
© OECD 2025. All rights reserved.
