Uploaded June 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Nik sat down with Checkmate from Checkonchain to work through where the dollar goes from here. A weaker dollar would loosen financial conditions worldwide and help US markets, but everything in play right now is pushing it the other way, from the AI trade pulling global capital into dollars to an administration content to keep rates high and squeeze the rest of the world.
This clip comes from our monthly collaboration with James Check (Checkonchain), delivered exclusively to TBL Pro subscribers on Substack.
The full conversation covers the onchain pain metrics showing this 50% drawdown already matches previous bear market bottoms, the mean reversion index and why 30K is a far lower probability than people think, the three tools Bessant is actually using to manage rates and volatility, the capex boom and the leveraged wave that follows it, and the 2019 into 2020 parallel and whether it holds up from a macro standpoint.
📎 Watch the full update: thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/bitcoins-never-ending-bear-market
🔓 Subscribe to TBL Pro: thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/subscribe
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by The Bitcoin Way. Most people know how to buy bitcoin, but few know how to truly secure it. The Bitcoin Way offers one-on-one, white glove self-custody training so you can take full control of your bitcoin wealth with zero counterparty risk. They never touch your bitcoin. From air-gapped hardware to inheritance planning to node running, they handle the full stack. They also offer personal cybersecurity services and Plan B residency in Panama for those seeking jurisdictional sovereignty. Book a free consultation today: thebitcoinway.com/tbl
Inside TBL Pro you get:
Two weekly macro updates from Nik Bhatia (one letter + one exclusive video)
One weekly Bitcoin market analysis
Access to the TBL Research Dashboard to track liquidity metrics yourself
Monthly report collaboration with James Check (Checkonchain)
About The Bitcoin Layer
The Bitcoin Layer provides macro research focused on liquidity cycles, global markets, and Bitcoin’s role in the financial system.
New Global Macro Updates are released every Thursday for TBL Pro members.
Nik sat down with Checkmate from Checkonchain to work through where the dollar goes from here. A weaker dollar would loosen financial conditions worldwide and help US markets, but everything in play right now is pushing it the other way, from the AI trade pulling global capital into dollars to an administration content to keep rates high and squeeze the rest of the world.
This clip comes from our monthly collaboration with James Check (Checkonchain), delivered exclusively to TBL Pro subscribers on Substack.
The full conversation covers the onchain pain metrics showing this 50% drawdown already matches previous bear market bottoms, the mean reversion index and why 30K is a far lower probability than people think, the three tools Bessant is actually using to manage rates and volatility, the capex boom and the leveraged wave that follows it, and the 2019 into 2020 parallel and whether it holds up from a macro standpoint.
📎 Watch the full update: thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/bitcoins-never-ending-bear-market
🔓 Subscribe to TBL Pro: thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/subscribe
The Bitcoin Layer is proud to be sponsored by The Bitcoin Way. Most people know how to buy bitcoin, but few know how to truly secure it. The Bitcoin Way offers one-on-one, white glove self-custody training so you can take full control of your bitcoin wealth with zero counterparty risk. They never touch your bitcoin. From air-gapped hardware to inheritance planning to node running, they handle the full stack. They also offer personal cybersecurity services and Plan B residency in Panama for those seeking jurisdictional sovereignty. Book a free consultation today: thebitcoinway.com/tbl
Inside TBL Pro you get:
Two weekly macro updates from Nik Bhatia (one letter + one exclusive video)
One weekly Bitcoin market analysis
Access to the TBL Research Dashboard to track liquidity metrics yourself
Monthly report collaboration with James Check (Checkonchain)
About The Bitcoin Layer
The Bitcoin Layer provides macro research focused on liquidity cycles, global markets, and Bitcoin’s role in the financial system.
New Global Macro Updates are released every Thursday for TBL Pro members.
