Uploaded December 2022 | Updated September 2026, 19 hours ago
Under what conditions do dual-use emerging technologies proliferate in the international system? While the fourth industrial revolution (Information and Communications Technology revolution) is often associated with big data, I argue that emerging technologies should also be known for their level of prominence, complexity, unparalleled connectivity, enhanced performance, and uncertainty compared to traditional technologies. Leveraging open-source, multi-year data consisting of about two million observations from the National Science Foundation, arXiv, Small Business Innovation Research, and Department of Defense’s Research, Development, Test and Evaluation program, I first share an illustrative example differentiating frontier, emerging, and mature technologies with quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and GPS respectively. After providing conceptualizations of technologies, I then outline the conceptualization and operationalization of the outcome variable, proliferation. Proliferation includes two stages, specifically possession and the operationality of the emerging technology. In putting forth a novel definition of emerging technologies, this paper includes extensive and robust empirical analysis of patents through the World Intellectual Property Organization, investment via Research, Development, Test and Evaluation, and publications via arXiv, awards via the Small Business Innovation Research Program and the National Science Foundation. Overall, scholarly attention to emerging technologies is increasingly important as these innovations continue to take shape and impact the nature of national and international security.
Under what conditions do dual-use emerging technologies proliferate in the international system? While the fourth industrial revolution (Information and Communications Technology revolution) is often associated with big data, I argue that emerging technologies should also be known for their level of prominence, complexity, unparalleled connectivity, enhanced performance, and uncertainty compared to traditional technologies. Leveraging open-source, multi-year data consisting of about two million observations from the National Science Foundation, arXiv, Small Business Innovation Research, and Department of Defense’s Research, Development, Test and Evaluation program, I first share an illustrative example differentiating frontier, emerging, and mature technologies with quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and GPS respectively. After providing conceptualizations of technologies, I then outline the conceptualization and operationalization of the outcome variable, proliferation. Proliferation includes two stages, specifically possession and the operationality of the emerging technology. In putting forth a novel definition of emerging technologies, this paper includes extensive and robust empirical analysis of patents through the World Intellectual Property Organization, investment via Research, Development, Test and Evaluation, and publications via arXiv, awards via the Small Business Innovation Research Program and the National Science Foundation. Overall, scholarly attention to emerging technologies is increasingly important as these innovations continue to take shape and impact the nature of national and international security.
