The Rational Reminder Podcast | Dr. Bryan Taylor: Lessons from Market History (1600-2024) | Rational Reminder 324 @rationalreminder | Uploaded September 2024 | Updated October 2024, 5 hours ago.
Meet with PWL Capital: calendly.com/d/cpws-jyp-znp
Have you ever wondered how financial markets performed centuries ago or how world events impacted stock prices? Today, we sit down with Dr. Bryan Taylor, President and Chief Economist at Global Financial Data, to unpack the world’s fascinating financial history. Dr. Taylor is known for his extensive work in collecting and analyzing historical financial data that spans several centuries and his valuable knowledge of stock, bond, and commodity market trends, which led to the creation of Global Financial Data. In our conversation, Dr. Taylor shares insights from his extensive research, covering stock and bond returns from as far back as the 1600s. From the impact of the French Revolution on financial markets to the performance of commodities, Dr. Taylor provides a rare view of the long-term trends shaping today’s financial decisions. Learn about the value of historical financial data, its importance for investment decision-making, and how long-term trends can provide insights into future market behaviour. We discuss the creation of Global Financial Data's extensive historical financial database, the challenges of gathering centuries-old data, and the long-term performance of stocks versus bonds. Explore the impact of major geopolitical events on financial markets, the importance of studying historical market trends for modern investment decisions, and how his data-driven research has been utilized. Join us as we delve into the world’s financial history and its relevance to today’s investment landscape with Dr. Bryan Taylor. Tune in now!
Timestamps:
0:00:00 Intro
0:04:39 Bryan defines Global Financial Data
0:09:01 The challenges with collecting data on the distant past
0:13:29 How useful data from the distant past are for making investment decisions today
0:14:36 How stocks have performed relative to bonds throughout the full history that you have data for
0:22:50 Bryan describes the five financial eras that we have seen over the last 400 years
0:28:27 How to know what type of era we are in now
0:31:36 What effect government debt has on country stock returns
0:39:57 Which countries have the best and worst performing stock market throughout history
0:44:11 What the lessons from studying history suggest about expected stock and bond returns today
0:47:42 How low interest rates were in recent history relative to the long-term history of interest rates
0:53:20 How Bryan addressed the lack of historical data for emerging markets returns
0:57:14 How Bryan classifies an emerging market in his data
1:03:04 How often emerging markets transition to being developed markets
1:08:25 How the current level of concentration in the U.S. stock market look relative to history
1:13:43 Bryan defines success in his life
Links From Today’s Episode:
Meet with PWL Capital: calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p
Rational Reminder on iTunes — itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
Rational Reminder Website — rationalreminder.ca
Rational Reminder on Instagram — instagram.com/rationalreminder
Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind
Rational Reminder on TikTok — tiktok.com/@rationalreminder
Rational Reminder on YouTube — youtube.com/channel
Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.ca
Benjamin Felix — pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix
Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix
Benjamin on LinkedIn — linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix
Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp
Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP
Dr. Bryan Taylor — linkedin.com/in/bryan-taylor-46a92032
Global Financial Data — globalfinancialdata.com
Dr. Bryan Taylor on SSRN — papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=4320002
Papers From Today’s Episode:
‘France and the Four Horsemen of the Market’ — globalfinancialdata.com/france-and-the-four-horsemen-of-the-market
‘The Financial History of Emerging Markets: New Indices’ — dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4193062
Meet with PWL Capital: calendly.com/d/cpws-jyp-znp
Have you ever wondered how financial markets performed centuries ago or how world events impacted stock prices? Today, we sit down with Dr. Bryan Taylor, President and Chief Economist at Global Financial Data, to unpack the world’s fascinating financial history. Dr. Taylor is known for his extensive work in collecting and analyzing historical financial data that spans several centuries and his valuable knowledge of stock, bond, and commodity market trends, which led to the creation of Global Financial Data. In our conversation, Dr. Taylor shares insights from his extensive research, covering stock and bond returns from as far back as the 1600s. From the impact of the French Revolution on financial markets to the performance of commodities, Dr. Taylor provides a rare view of the long-term trends shaping today’s financial decisions. Learn about the value of historical financial data, its importance for investment decision-making, and how long-term trends can provide insights into future market behaviour. We discuss the creation of Global Financial Data's extensive historical financial database, the challenges of gathering centuries-old data, and the long-term performance of stocks versus bonds. Explore the impact of major geopolitical events on financial markets, the importance of studying historical market trends for modern investment decisions, and how his data-driven research has been utilized. Join us as we delve into the world’s financial history and its relevance to today’s investment landscape with Dr. Bryan Taylor. Tune in now!
Timestamps:
0:00:00 Intro
0:04:39 Bryan defines Global Financial Data
0:09:01 The challenges with collecting data on the distant past
0:13:29 How useful data from the distant past are for making investment decisions today
0:14:36 How stocks have performed relative to bonds throughout the full history that you have data for
0:22:50 Bryan describes the five financial eras that we have seen over the last 400 years
0:28:27 How to know what type of era we are in now
0:31:36 What effect government debt has on country stock returns
0:39:57 Which countries have the best and worst performing stock market throughout history
0:44:11 What the lessons from studying history suggest about expected stock and bond returns today
0:47:42 How low interest rates were in recent history relative to the long-term history of interest rates
0:53:20 How Bryan addressed the lack of historical data for emerging markets returns
0:57:14 How Bryan classifies an emerging market in his data
1:03:04 How often emerging markets transition to being developed markets
1:08:25 How the current level of concentration in the U.S. stock market look relative to history
1:13:43 Bryan defines success in his life
Links From Today’s Episode:
Meet with PWL Capital: calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p
Rational Reminder on iTunes — itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
Rational Reminder Website — rationalreminder.ca
Rational Reminder on Instagram — instagram.com/rationalreminder
Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind
Rational Reminder on TikTok — tiktok.com/@rationalreminder
Rational Reminder on YouTube — youtube.com/channel
Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.ca
Benjamin Felix — pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix
Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix
Benjamin on LinkedIn — linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix
Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp
Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP
Dr. Bryan Taylor — linkedin.com/in/bryan-taylor-46a92032
Global Financial Data — globalfinancialdata.com
Dr. Bryan Taylor on SSRN — papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=4320002
Papers From Today’s Episode:
‘France and the Four Horsemen of the Market’ — globalfinancialdata.com/france-and-the-four-horsemen-of-the-market
‘The Financial History of Emerging Markets: New Indices’ — dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4193062
