Uploaded July 2026 | Updated September 2026, 3 weeks ago
Does trade prevent war? Phil Luck argues the evidence is stronger than most people realize, a doubling of trade between two countries causally cuts the chances of conflict by about 30 percent, even as recent bets on Russia and broader economic integration have made the peace dividend easy to dismiss. Jon Alterman brings the argument to the Gulf, where the UAE's robust trade with Iran did not spare it from the largest share of incoming Iranian weapons.
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Does trade prevent war? Phil Luck argues the evidence is stronger than most people realize, a doubling of trade between two countries causally cuts the chances of conflict by about 30 percent, even as recent bets on Russia and broader economic integration have made the peace dividend easy to dismiss. Jon Alterman brings the argument to the Gulf, where the UAE's robust trade with Iran did not spare it from the largest share of incoming Iranian weapons.
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A nonpartisan institution, CSIS is the top national security think tank in the world.
Visit csis.org to find more of our work as we bring bipartisan solutions to the world's greatest challenges.
Want to see more videos and virtual events? Subscribe to this channel and turn on notifications: https://cs.is/2dCfTve
Follow CSIS on:
• Twitter: twitter.com/csis
• Facebook: facebook.com/CSIS.org
• Instagram: instagram.com/csis
