Uploaded August 2026 | Updated September 2026, 2 weeks ago
Does atmospheric CO₂ drive temperature—or do temperature changes largely determine atmospheric CO₂?
In this presentation, physicist and electronics professor Peter Stallinga applies signal analysis, thermodynamics and first-order kinetics to the relationship between atmospheric temperature and carbon dioxide.
Stallinga begins with a critical discussion of climate politics, scientific consensus and research incentives. He argues that prevailing climate ideas are too often treated as unquestionable beliefs rather than hypotheses that must be tested and potentially falsified.
He then turns to the physics of the atmosphere and examines:
• the greenhouse-effect hypothesis versus Henry’s law;
• correlations and time lags between temperature and CO₂;
• ice-core records covering hundreds of thousands of years;
• signal processing and the direction of causality;
• El Niño, La Niña and annual changes in atmospheric CO₂;
• the reduction in human emissions during the COVID-19 period;
• the difference between residence time and adjustment time;
• first-order kinetics and a two-box atmospheric model;
• carbon-14 measurements following nuclear bomb tests;
• feedback mechanisms within the climate system.
Using a two-box, first-order model, Stallinga derives that the adjustment time must be equal to or shorter than the atmospheric residence time. He argues that the observational evidence is consistent with relatively rapid adjustment and that only a limited portion of cumulative human emissions remains in the atmosphere.
His analysis leads him to conclude that temperature changes precede changes in atmospheric CO₂, that natural processes dominate the observed rise and that the net feedback operating in the climate system is negative rather than positive.
The presentation is followed by an animated discussion about equilibrium, the limitations of a two-box model, the interpretation of carbon flows and whether atmospheric CO₂ observations support Stallinga’s conclusions. Ferdinand Engelbeen directly challenges his estimate of the human contribution and his treatment of multidirectional carbon exchange.
Recorded during the Clintel Workshop on Recent Research Developments on Atmospheric Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Their Relationship at the National Technical University of Athens on 19 September 2024.
This video was filmed, edited and produced by Aphroditi Katerinopoulou:
vimeo.com/user52800014
aphroditikat@yahoo.gr
Peter Stallinga is Professor of Electronics at the University of the Algarve in Portugal.
Learn more about Clintel and the World Climate Declaration:
clintel.org
Hoofdstukken
00:00 Introduction
00:40 Opening remarks
01:50 The physics of the atmosphere
03:00 Peter Stallinga and his background
04:22 Climate politics and “climatism”
05:14 The Club of Rome and Limits to Growth
06:39 Scientific debate and academic incentives
08:42 Climate change and Pascal’s Wager
09:23 Testing and falsifying hypotheses
11:09 How scientific consensus develops
11:49 From politics to atmospheric physics
12:05 The greenhouse effect versus Henry’s law
14:00 Does CO₂ lag behind temperature?
15:02 Signal processing and seasonal cycles
16:40 Emissions and annual changes in CO₂
18:20 Response times and atmospheric adjustment
20:04 The correlation between CO₂ and methane
20:49 Comparing correlations across timescales
21:55 The COVID-19 emissions experiment
23:08 Residence time versus adjustment time
25:34 Testing a two-box atmospheric model
27:45 First-order kinetics and adjustment time
29:04 Numerical simulations
30:25 Carbon-14 and nuclear bomb tests
31:45 How much human CO₂ remains?
32:46 Feedback in the atmosphere
34:28 Questions and discussion
36:26 What is equilibrium?
37:09 Debate over the Club of Rome
38:44 Ferdinand Engelbeen challenges the model
41:21 Seasonal temperature and CO₂ changes
42:28 Ice-core data and Henry’s law
Does atmospheric CO₂ drive temperature—or do temperature changes largely determine atmospheric CO₂?
In this presentation, physicist and electronics professor Peter Stallinga applies signal analysis, thermodynamics and first-order kinetics to the relationship between atmospheric temperature and carbon dioxide.
Stallinga begins with a critical discussion of climate politics, scientific consensus and research incentives. He argues that prevailing climate ideas are too often treated as unquestionable beliefs rather than hypotheses that must be tested and potentially falsified.
He then turns to the physics of the atmosphere and examines:
• the greenhouse-effect hypothesis versus Henry’s law;
• correlations and time lags between temperature and CO₂;
• ice-core records covering hundreds of thousands of years;
• signal processing and the direction of causality;
• El Niño, La Niña and annual changes in atmospheric CO₂;
• the reduction in human emissions during the COVID-19 period;
• the difference between residence time and adjustment time;
• first-order kinetics and a two-box atmospheric model;
• carbon-14 measurements following nuclear bomb tests;
• feedback mechanisms within the climate system.
Using a two-box, first-order model, Stallinga derives that the adjustment time must be equal to or shorter than the atmospheric residence time. He argues that the observational evidence is consistent with relatively rapid adjustment and that only a limited portion of cumulative human emissions remains in the atmosphere.
His analysis leads him to conclude that temperature changes precede changes in atmospheric CO₂, that natural processes dominate the observed rise and that the net feedback operating in the climate system is negative rather than positive.
The presentation is followed by an animated discussion about equilibrium, the limitations of a two-box model, the interpretation of carbon flows and whether atmospheric CO₂ observations support Stallinga’s conclusions. Ferdinand Engelbeen directly challenges his estimate of the human contribution and his treatment of multidirectional carbon exchange.
Recorded during the Clintel Workshop on Recent Research Developments on Atmospheric Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Their Relationship at the National Technical University of Athens on 19 September 2024.
This video was filmed, edited and produced by Aphroditi Katerinopoulou:
vimeo.com/user52800014
aphroditikat@yahoo.gr
Peter Stallinga is Professor of Electronics at the University of the Algarve in Portugal.
Learn more about Clintel and the World Climate Declaration:
clintel.org
Hoofdstukken
00:00 Introduction
00:40 Opening remarks
01:50 The physics of the atmosphere
03:00 Peter Stallinga and his background
04:22 Climate politics and “climatism”
05:14 The Club of Rome and Limits to Growth
06:39 Scientific debate and academic incentives
08:42 Climate change and Pascal’s Wager
09:23 Testing and falsifying hypotheses
11:09 How scientific consensus develops
11:49 From politics to atmospheric physics
12:05 The greenhouse effect versus Henry’s law
14:00 Does CO₂ lag behind temperature?
15:02 Signal processing and seasonal cycles
16:40 Emissions and annual changes in CO₂
18:20 Response times and atmospheric adjustment
20:04 The correlation between CO₂ and methane
20:49 Comparing correlations across timescales
21:55 The COVID-19 emissions experiment
23:08 Residence time versus adjustment time
25:34 Testing a two-box atmospheric model
27:45 First-order kinetics and adjustment time
29:04 Numerical simulations
30:25 Carbon-14 and nuclear bomb tests
31:45 How much human CO₂ remains?
32:46 Feedback in the atmosphere
34:28 Questions and discussion
36:26 What is equilibrium?
37:09 Debate over the Club of Rome
38:44 Ferdinand Engelbeen challenges the model
41:21 Seasonal temperature and CO₂ changes
42:28 Ice-core data and Henry’s law
